My Hits and Misses on Day 1

BEST: I knew Christian Ponder would be taken in the top half of the draft and even had him going to the Vikings in my first mock draft. I thought he could fall to the Jaguars, but had a strong feeling that he would be in the top 16. Not bad considering it apparently shocked everyone else surrounding the NFL.

WORST: I really thought that Jake Locker was going to fall out of the first round and that Andy Dalton and Ryan Mallet would be taken ahead of him. Boy was I wrong. The Titans took him with the 8th overall pick, opting for him over Blaine Gabbert, who seems to have much more NFL potential than Locker. I could have not been more wrong about where Locker was going to end up, but as they say, "It only takes one team to believe in a guy."

Best and Worst of Day 1

BEST:

1. Saints: Anytime you get two rookies who were ranked in the top 16 players of the draft, you had a great day. Cameron Jordan is an extremely smart and physical player who has the frame that they look for in their defensive ends (6’3 280 lbs) and he could have gone as high as 9^th overall to the Cowboys. Ingram is an every down back, which is a dying breed in the NFL. They had to give up a lot to get him, but he allows them to get rid of Reggie Bush and his huge contract. Bush would make $11.8 million in 2011 if he stayed on the Saints’ roster.
2. Jaguars: They landed the top quarterback in the draft by trading up to only the tenth pick. Blaine Gabbert is in the perfect situation in which he can sit behind David Garrard for a year while he learns a pro-style offense and works on his accuracy. The Redskins came out on top as well because they gained more picks to beef up a depleted roster after missing out on Jake Locker.
3. Browns: They managed to trade out of the top ten, which they were hoping to do, and pick up FIVE draft picks (Falcons' 27th pick overall, second and forth round picks this year, as well as their first and forth round picks in 2012). They then traded up to get the player they wanted in Phil Taylor: the 330 pound nose tackle who will be a great asset against the run and the pass in their switch back to the 4-3.
4. Patriots: They once again acquired another first round pick in next year’s draft, and still managed to get the best pass protecting left tackle in the draft. Look for them to trade the first pick in the second round to someone trying to get either Andy Dalton or Ryan Mallett.
5. Bills: I hate putting the Bills and Patriots on this list since I am a Jets fan, but the Bills as well got out of the first round with a great player. The Bills probably would have liked to draft Newton, but they ended up having the best player in the draft fall to them at the third pick. Dareus will be a great defensive end in their 3-4 defense, who can slide inside to tackle on passing downs.

Draft Day Twitter

Follow me on Twitter throughout the Draft today @AustenElmore. I will be updating you on picks, trades, and my analysis of everything that is going on throughout the day. Would love to hear what, if anything, people are doing for the Draft.

Final 2011 NFL Mock Draft

1. PANTHERS: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

LAST MOCK: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

Cam Newton makes no sense at this spot. The Panthers publicly said they would draft Andrew Luck if he decided to leave Stanford. However, that didn’t happen and the Panthers are stuck with inferior quarterbacks to choose from. Now that they know they have the most difficult schedule in the NFL for the 2011 season, its more than likely they will be picking in the top 5 in the next draft and have a good shot at Luck in 2012. Ron Rivera said that they are looking for a “sound pick” who will make an impact immediately, which is the opposite of what Newton offers them. Dareus is the best player in the draft and will solidify the interior of the Panthers’ defense for years. They can let Jimmy Clausen, or one of the other young quarterbacks on their roster, take a beating next year and figure out who will be starting in 2012.

2. BRONCOS: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU

LAST MOCK: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

The Broncos have a bigger need along their defensive line, but Peterson is just too good to pass up. He might be the best player in this draft and he will be able to start immediately for the Broncos’ defense that took a big hit last season without defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. The Broncos need an eventual replacement for Champ Bailey and Peterson could end up being an even better pro than Bailey, which is saying a lot.

3. BILLS: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

LAST MOCK: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

I think there is a good chance the Bills will panic and trade up to either the first or second pick in order to draft Cam Newton, which is exactly what the Panthers and Broncos want. I don’t see the Bills taking anyone besides one of the top two quarterbacks or Patrick Peterson. They have already invested a lot of money in acquiring Shawne Merriman and Aaron Maybin is still developing, so I don’t think they will take Von Miller, who is slated in the third spot in many other mock drafts.

4. BENGALS: WR AJ Green, Georgia

LAST MOCK: WR AJ Green, Georgia

The Bengals have focused in on drafting a receiver with their top pick and I’m confident they will take either Green or Julio Jones. I could see them moving out of this spot in order to gain some ammunition to trade back into the first round to draft a quarterback, but I don’t think they will find anyone to trade with.

5. CARDINALS: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

LAST MOCK: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

As bad as the Cardinals offense looked last year, their defense was equally as inconsistent. They desperately need a rush outside linebacker and if Von Miller is there for them, he will be their pick no matter who else in left no the board. Fitzgerald wants a veteran quarterback and drafting another young quarterback will only frustrate him further. The Cardinals will do everything they can to keep Fitzgerald happy. Robert Quinn could be in this spot if Miller isn’t available.

Players Already Getting Into Trouble

In my article, Character and Work Ethic Paramount in Upcoming Draft (http://tiny.cc/wvoed), I talked about how this lockout could have a huge negative impact on this year's rookie class. NFL.com came out with an article today showing all the players that have gotten arrested just within the six weeks since the lockout started (http://tiny.cc/rmuvl). It is insane how many players have gotten themselves into trouble in such a short time and this does not even include Brandon Marshall's vicious stabbing last night. It is really sad that the Dolphins coaches, owners, and staff are unable to even call Marshall to wish him well and see how he is feeling.

Worst Titles for Sports Films

Here are the top 10 that I came up with:

10. Hell Can Wait
9. Eight Men Out of the Closet
8. Remember the Racism
7. A Jail Cell of Their Own: The Cincinnati Bengals
6. Pedophiles in the Outfield
5. Miracle: Ben Roethlisberger's Acquittal
4. Michael Vick's Pitbull's Song
3. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Some Drunk Redneck
2. Chariots of Fire: Babe Ruth's Battle with Gonorrhea
1. Field of Broken Dreams: Ben Roethlisberger's Ex-Girlfriends

Check out the other entries and add your own at:

http://twitter.com/#!/search?q=%23Normsbadsportsmovies

Twitter Account

Follow me on Twitter @AustenElmore. I will be tweeting throughout the entire NFL Draft, which starts Thursday April 28th at 8PM ET. I hope you are as excited as I am! I'm sure there will be lots to discuss.

Lay Off Jay Cutler

I’m really sick and tired of hearing questions about Jay Cutler. It was just two years ago that everyone was saying that the Broncos were insane for parting ways with such a young and talented franchise quarterback. Cutler has not gotten any less talented. I don’t understand why people continue to question his toughness. After going through a rough first year in Chicago, he bounced back last season and took the Bears to the NFC Championship. This is an extremely impressive feat, considering that Mike Martz's offensive system is probably the most complicated in the NFL. Its effectiveness relies on great offensive line play and wide receivers that can stretch the field, neither of which the Bears possess.

The Bears could not have put Cutler in a worse offensive system, given the players they had on the roster. When a quarterback is asked to take five and seven foot drops, which are the majority of the plays in Martz’s system, he needs a lot of time in the pocket in order for the play to develop and for his receivers to get open downfield. The Bears biggest weakness by far coming into the 2010 season was their porous offensive line, which lead to Cutler taking a league worst 52 sacks. While some of those sacks had to do with Cutler staying in the pocket too long, most of the blame falls on the offensive line and the scheme that Cutler was thrown into. By the time Culter was able to set his feet after his long drops, he usually had defenders right in his face, causing him to have to scramble around for his life.

Not only was this system a poor choice because of the Bears’ offensive line, it also failed to utilize some of its best weapons. Arguably the Bears’ top offensive weapon is Matt Forte. While Forte did improve on his numbers from a very disappointing 2009 season, Forte still had the fewest carries and receptions of his career. Martz’s system does not allow Forte to be the focal point of the offense. His system almost always uses three and four wide receiver sets, meaning less big bodied players (tight ends and fullbacks) to help the run game. On top of these sets being detrimental to the run game, they do not maximize the potential of the Bears’ offense since some of the Bears’ top receiving threats are their tight ends. Greg Olsen, Desmond Clarke, Kellen Davis, and Brandon Manumaleuna might make up the most talented and deep group of tight ends in the NFL. While Martz did a good job adjusting to the players he had this season, especially after the bye week, I still think there is a lot of potential that is being left on the bench.

2011 NFL Mock Draft: Take 2

1. PANTHERS: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

LAST MOCK: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

I’m sticking with Dareus as the top pick, since he is the best value with the first pick. The Panthers will do everything they can to make people think they are going to take a quarterback in order to try to trade out of this pick, since they don’t have a second round pick and have numerous needs on both sides of the ball.

***4/24/11: Another reason that Newton/Gabbert does not make sense at this pick is that the Panthers have FOUR quarterbacks on their roster under the age of 26, two of whom were rookies last year (Jimmy Clausen and sixth round draft pick Tony Pike).

2. BRONCOS: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

LAST MOCK: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

Fairley has bust written all over him, but he is still the most talented defensive lineman left of the board, which is the Broncos biggest need by far. If the Panthers don’t take a quarterback, it is more than likely that the Broncos will trade out of this pick with a team that wants to grab a quarterback before the Bills can get to him. Patrick Peterson is also a big possibility here, and would be a much safer pick.

3. BILLS: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

LAST MOCK: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

Cam Newton has a ton of potential and it’s been a long time since the Bills have drafted someone that will get their fan base excited. This could be the biggest mistake of the draft, or it could turn around a franchise that has needed a franchise quarterback since the mid-90s.

4. BENGALS: WR AJ Green, Georgia

LAST MOCK: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

Drafting the top wide receiver in the draft could entice Carson Palmer to come back to Cincinnati. If not, they still end up with one of the best players in the draft and will take a quarterback in the second round or trade up to get a player like Ryan Mallet.

5. CARDINALS: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

LAST MOCK: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

Larry Fitzgerald came out to say that he does not believe the Cards will draft a quarterback in the first round, and I believe him. They have a much bigger need at OLB and Miller is by far the best prospect to fill that need in their 3-4 defense. I believe they will either go after Marc Bulger or Kevin Kolb once free agency starts.

2011 Quarterback Draft Class

My top 5 QBs:

1. Christian Ponder
2. Blaine Gabbert
3. Cam Newton
4. Ryan Mallett
5. Jake Locker

Let’s look at this list in detail, considering I’m sure everyone reading this will be shocked that Christian Ponder is listed as my number one quarterback in this draft, but I am ready to defend this point.

Character and Work Ethic Paramount in Upcoming Draft

In this time of great uncertainty for the NFL, with free agency up in the air and no one knowing when the players will get into camp or even be able to play their next game, coaches and player personnel really need to do their homework on the personalities of the players in this draft. Because of the uncertainty revolving around when the new collective bargaining agreement will be finalized, teams must place more importance than ever on players’ character concerns, especially when it comes to players’ dedication to football and overall work ethic.

With rookies possibly not being able to join their teams until August or September, instead of May or June mini camps, this rookie class will not only have significantly less time to get used to their new coaches and systems, it’s a lot of time for them to get out of football shape. The physical transition from college to the NFL is difficult for all rookies (look at USC’s Joe McKnight’s inability to stop puking during his first few weeks with the Jets). Months of lost time with strength and conditioning coaches will be hard to make up even for the most motivated players, but for some rookies it could spell disaster. This may sound over dramatic, but think about how many unmotivated players have set their franchises back for years, especially for teams picking in the top 10.

2011 NFL Mock Draft

1. PANTHERS: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

Ron Rivera understands how rare a player like Dareus is and opts for the most dominant and versatile defensive lineman in the draft. None of this year’s quarterbacks are worth the first overall pick. A few years from now, people will be talking about how smart a move this was. The Panthers will take their chances with Jimmy Clausen at QB for another year or draft a QB in the later rounds.

2. BRONCOS: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

Picks one and two go DT. After seeing the immediate impact of Suh last year, teams will be jumping all over Dareus and Fairley. I’m not saying Fairly should be the number two pick, but I think it is likely to happen since the Broncos have NO ONE for the interior of the DL. Fairley is a perfect fit for their switch back to the 4-3. The Broncos will get a lot of calls on draft day for this pick.

3. BILLS: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

Ralph Wilson will fall in love with his athletic ability and hope that his star quality brings the fans back, even if this is a reach for Newton.

4. BENGALS: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

I don’t think Carson Palmer is bluffing on his threat to retire and Bengals will be happy to get the best QB in the draft at fourth overall. AJ Green is also a big possibility here.

5. CARDINALS: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

The Cardinals will shore up their QB position with a veteran or in the later rounds, and Von Miller is drawing comparisons to Clay Matthews. They have a bigger need at OLB than QB either way. Can you name an OLB on Arizona that isn’t Joey Porter, who will be 34 at the beginning of the season? I sure can’t.