Darrelle Revis: A Buc Killer

The Bucs have landed another playmaker in the back end of
their defense, but is Darrelle Revis worth his new contract?

The Bucs may have managed to give up less than the Jets wanted to acquire Revis, but it is his new hefty contract that could cause a lot of headaches in years to come. People will say that this is a great contract for the Bucs, but I think otherwise. Paying $16 million dollars a year for a corner back is ludicrous. Even if Revis is back to 100%, this is too much money for any defensive player. The NFL is a league in which you need a quarterback to win, and since winning quarterbacks cost around $17-20 million to retain, that does not leave much money for the other 52 players on the roster.

I strongly believe that Revis is the most dominant defensive player in the league, but with the majority of teams running some form of the spread offense, shutting down one offensive player does not have the effect that it used to. Teams will still be able to throw away from Revis, like they did for years playing against a once dominant Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland.

Technically, there is no guaranteed money in Revis’ new contract, but since the Bucs gave up two high picks for him, there is almost no situation in which he is not on the team for the next two seasons, even if he is plagued by injuries and/or inconsistency. In that case, there is almost an assumed guaranteed $32 million. After those first two years, the Bucs will then still be paying a 30 year old player $16 million a season if they want him to stay on the team. 

The Bucs have a lot of cap space right now, but since they have given out five huge contracts in free agency over the last 12 months, that cap space will start depleting quickly over the next couple of years as those contracts escalate. They also have a looming contract negotiation with quarterback Josh Freeman, who could cost a lot to hold on to if he manages to even have a decent season in 2013, but we will get more into that later.

There are only two scenarios in which this contract is good for the Bucs. One, is if Revis reestablishes himself as the most dominant defensive player in the league, in which case he could actually be worth his price tag. Two, is if Revis gets horribly injured or becomes Asomugha 2.0, they can cut ties without having much financial backlash. However, there is a whole world of probability in between those two scenarios that are more likely to play out.

Bucs' General Manager, Mark Dominik, has made some
bold moves over the last two years, but it will be this
trade for Revis that will define his future in Tampa Bay.

What if Revis’ injury lingers? What if Revis comes back and plays more like a top 5-10 corner in the league instead of his past dominance? What is his value compared to keeping some younger players already on the Bucs’ roster? Revis has proven that he will not take a team discount and wants to be the highest paid defender in the league. The Bucs could very well get in a situation in which they either have to continuously over pay an aging player or have to release a guy who they gave away two very high picks for. These are the types of decisions that can lose a General Manager his job.

GM Mark Dominik has put his career on the line. If he cannot take this team to a Super Bowl in the next two to three years, there is a good chance he will be out of a job. The Bucs are looking dangerously like a Jets team from just a few years ago who spent a lot in free agency, yet still had concerns at the only spot that really matters, the quarterback.

Revis might be the talk of Tampa right
now but their future hinges Josh Freeman.

The Revis trade makes the Josh Freeman issue all the more important. Say Freeman has a great season, goes to the Pro Bowl and takes this team to the playoffs. Great for the Bucs, but then Freeman is going to want around $20 million a year, which the team really cannot afford with the contracts to Revis, Vincent Jackson, Dashon Goldson, etc. That means they might have to make significant cuts to get Freeman back on this team, which could end up having to be Revis simply because of his huge cap number. Even if Freeman continues to show improvement, he is most likely going to at least want Tony Romo type money (around $17 million per year), which is still a huge commitment.

Then take the other side of that, say Freeman continues to struggle with inconsistency and the Bucs decide to go in another direction at quarterback. Even if Freeman has a rough season, the Bucs would be hard pressed to go worse than their 7-9 record in 2012, which would leave them outside the top ten and most likely out of contention for one of the top quarterbacks in next year’s draft. So they would either have to strike gold in the draft or sign some marginal veteran quarterback that they could fit under the cap, who could still end up being a downgrade from Freeman.

In the NFL, you will not be a successful team without taking some risks. However, history has proven that the biggest splashes in free agency tend to be the quickest way for a General Manager to lose his job. There are so many ways that the Revis deal could end up hurting the Bucs in the long run that there needs to be a sense of Super Bowl or bust for the entire organization. Even with an improved Freeman and a healthy Revis, the Bucs still might only be the third best team in their division, so they have an uphill battle to say the least. Mark Dominik is banking on a big payoff from Revis, but he will most certainly be the fall guy if this ends up hurting the organization in anyway.