Wednesday, May 7, 2014

2014 NFL Mock Draft ACE Style

Well it is less than 24 hours before the 2014 NFL draft. This is the time when people should start making mock drafts, not February. Either way, here are my thoughts on where the top 32 rookies will land.

Jadeveon Clowney will be the first overall pick, but
what team will have the pick when the card is turned in?
1. TEXANS: DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina

The Texans might not make this pick with both the Falcons and Bills rumored to be interested in securing Clowney, but the defensive end will be the first pick in this draft. There are simply too many questions surrounding the quarterbacks to pass on an athletic freak like Clowney. It might not be the right pick for whatever team takes him, but he will be the pick.

2. RAMS: OT Greg Robinson, Auburn

St. Louis is waiting around for Sam Bradford to become a franchise quarterback and their stable of wide receivers to turn into playmakers, so they will pass on both positions and take the best tackle in the draft to attempt to help Bradford stay heathy (good luck). This draft is very top heavy when it comes to offensive tackles so the Rams will not wait until the 13th overall pick to address the issue.

3. JAGUARS: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson

With MJD in Oakland and Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely, the Jags are in desperate need of offensive playmakers. Watkins might be the best player in this draft when everything is all said and done, and he will immediately make whatever quarterback the Jags start better on day one of 2014.

4. BROWNS: QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

The signings of Vince Young and Tyler Thigpen were a sign of just how desperate the Browns organization is to simply find bodies to add to their quarterback room. The Browns have the best offensive tackle in football and the second best receiver in the league, so I'd be shocked if they took one of the tackles to play on the right side or reached for Mike Evans at this point. Khalil Mack will get a long look, but they took Barkevious Mingo with the sixth overall pick in last year's draft and paid over $40 million to Paul Kruger last season, so I have a hard time believing they would spend a top five pick on a player they wouldn't play all three downs. Manziel might not be the polished passer you want in a top 10 quarterback, but he has all the skills you need to be an elite quarterback and gives the Browns some optimism for their franchise.


5. RAIDERS: OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M

The loss of Jared Veldheer cannot be minimized. Mike Evans will definitely be in play at this pick, but receivers can take time to develop and this current Raiders' regime does not have time to pass on an immediate impact player who could step in day one at either right or left tackle. Donald Penn and Austin Howard were signed to man left and right tackle, but Penn is a very short term answer at either tackle spot and Howard can be moved inside to guard for a season or two, since this entire offensive line needs upgrades.

6. FALCONS: OLB/DE Khalil Mack, Buffalo

There is a strong chance this will be the Texans picking here, in which case I'd have them taking quarterback Blake Bortles, but if the Falcons are here, they will luck out and get an elite pass rusher that they so sorely need. Mack would bring speed and physicality to a defense that lacked both last year.

7. BUCCANEERS: WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M

The third A&M player in four picks. Evans might not be the receiver Watkins is right now, but he has the potential to be even better at the NFL level because of his combination of size and speed. He is a slower Calvin Johnson and would be a huge upgrade over the departed Mike Williams, who I still think very highly of.

8. VIKINGS: QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida

Matt Cassel is the perfect player to be a stop gap option until whatever rookie quarterback the Vikings take in this draft is ready to play (I'm assuming they will take a quarterback in the first two rounds). Bortles has almost as much upside as Maziel and he has the size that Maziel lacks (6'5 230 lbs). He will be too inciting to pass up with the top receivers and pass rushers already off the board.

9. BILLS: TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina

I have seen Ebron go to the Bills in so many mock drafts that I almost didn't put him here. However, it simply makes too much sense for the Bills for it not to happen. The Bills offensive line is solid, they added receivers Mike Williams in free agency and Robert Woods in the second round last year, and their defense is generally pretty solid. Ebron would add a new element to their offense. They have seen what an elite tight end can do for an offense since they play the Patriots twice a year.

10. LIONS: OLB/DE Anthony Barr, UCLA

Detroit is in desperate need of a corner, but there are so few elite pass rushers in this draft that Barr will probably be too hard to pass up at this point. Adding him to that defensive line with Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and Ziggy Ansah (last year's first round pick) would give them possibly the best defensive line in football. With that line, you could put me out there to cover the NFL's top receivers.

11. TITANS: CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

With the top three corners in this year's draft, I think it all comes down to preference in what a team is looking for. Fuller might be the best all around corner in the draft and should help alleviate the pain of losing Alterraun Verner in free agency. He has better speed than Darqueze Denard and is a better football player than Justin Gilbert at this point.

12. GIANTS: OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan

If Lewan is on the board at this point, there is no question the Giants would take him. Eli Manning took a beating last season and he does not have enough years left of football to have another season like that. Lewan is ranked just as high as the other top two tackles, but an offseason assault charge will downgrade him on some boards. Still great value at this point.

13. RAMS: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama

Pairing Clinton-Dix with second year safety TJ McDonald would give the Rams two young safeties with a lot of upside. They could quickly develop into the second best safety tandem in the league behind the Saints' duo.

14. BEARS: DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh

You will not see a card handed in faster on draft day than if Donald is on the board for Chicago. I would be very surprised if a team like the Cowboys do not make a play to move ahead of the Giants and Bears to land Donald (look for the Lions or the Titans as trade partners). However, predicting draft trades is even more futile than doing a standard mock draft so if the Cowboys or any other team do not provide adequate value to one of the teams ahead of the Bears, this is as far as Donald will fall. Pairing Donald with free agent signee Lamarr Houston would turn the Bears' biggest weakness from 2013 into a strength.

15. STEELERS: CB Darqueze Denard, Michigan State

Back in the day, the Steelers were all set to draft Darelle Revis before the Jets wisely moved in front of them to steal him away to the Big Apple. Denard is as close to Revis coming out of college as I have seen since then. Denard does not have the same speed that Revis had, but he is a big, physical corner who does not shy away from making tackles in the open field. He plays a lot like Ike Taylor and pairing those two together would do wonders for both of their careers.

16. COWBOYS: DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State

The Cowboys defensive line is a total mess. All the talk of Manziel going to the Cowboys seems like a bizarre distraction from just how terrible this defense was last year. I strongly believe Jerry Jones will make a push to try to land Aaron Donald, but should they stay with this pick, Jernigan would be a solid option for this team. He would add a physically disruptive force in the middle of this defense that has been lacking since the decline of Jay Ratliff. Every team needs a space eater in the middle of the defense and Jernigan would provide just that for the Boys.

17. RAVENS: FS Calvin Pryor, Louisville

The Ravens could go in a lot of directions with this pick as offensive line, corner, and safety are all decently significant needs. With no hope of the top three tackles being on the board at this point, I think they will address a defensive need. Pryor grades out as the best pass defending safety in this class and would be a great compliment to last year's first round pick Matt Elam, who is better suited to be an in the box safety. However, I still believe this could easily become the 49ers pick for Odell Beckham Jr. who the 49ers know will not get past the Jets.

18. JETS: WR Odell Beckham Jr., LSU

I would be very surprised if another team did not hop over the Jets to land Beckham, but there is so much depth at receiver in this draft I am not sure that teams will want to give up too much to land any one in particular since they can stay put and get someone of similar value. The other teams ahead of the Jets have too many other needs to address receiver, so there is still some hope that Beckham falls here, which should be the lowest that you will see Beckham fall on Thursday night.

19. DOLPHINS: OL Zach Martin, Notre Dame

This offensive line needs an entire overhaul with the Richie Incognito scandal drawing a lot of negative attention to a unit that people tend not to care much about. Martin is as clean as they come off the field and he would make a logical replacement at right tackle to pair with the now exceedingly rich Branden Albert. Martin could go as high as 12 to the Giants, but I think he grades out better as a right tackle or guard, which significantly pushes down his value.

20. CARDINALS: CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

Yes the Cardinals just signed Antonio Cromartie to be paired alongside Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson, but Cromartie is far from a long term solution, and might not even be a solution for this season. Gilbert needs some time to develop, so sitting behind Peterson and Cro, two corners who game lines up with how Gilbert plays, could be the perfect situation for him. He could pass Cro on the depth chart sooner rather than later and would make this defense scary good.

21. PACKERS: MLB CJ Mosley, Alabama

Alabama prospects have not panned out particularly well in the NFL, and that is especially true for interior linebackers. However, Mosley has been regarded by some to be a top 10 pick. While I won't get that high on him, I cannot see the Packers letting him get past them. They have so many needs on defense but finding an athletic leader in the middle has to be high on that list.

22. EAGLES: WR Marqise Lee, USC

Chip Kelly would be ecstatic to land the receiver that once tore up his Oregon team. Had Lee entered the draft last year, there's no way he would have escaped the top 10 so landing him here after an injury plagued season would be a steal, and Kelly knows it. Brandin Cooks could be an option as well, but I think Kelly has seen enough of Lee to put him slightly higher on his board.

23. CHIEFS: WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State

Speaking of Cooks, here he is! The Chiefs were interested in both Emmanuel Sanders and DeSean Jackson in free agency. Cooks has a chance to be better than both of them and would be a great compliment alongside Dwayne Bowe.

24. BENGALS: QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

With one of the deepest rosters in the NFL, the Bengals biggest need might actually be quarterback. Since Andy Dalton has been there, he has been the unquestioned starter with little to no competition. He has gotten them to the playoffs all three years, but he has simply been atrocious in all three playoff losses. He is entering the final year of his rookie contract and it is speculated that he wants around $15 million per year. I would be surprised if the Bengals gave him anywhere near that. They need a backup option and some bargaining power. While that doesn't necessarily mean a first round quarterback, I think Bridgewater's upside is too much to pass up, as he might be the highest rated player left on the board. There is a good chance they trade this pick to someone else who wants Bridgewater or Derek Carr, but if they are forced to stay at this pick, don't be surprised if the Bengals opt for a quarterback.

25. CHARGERS: CB Jason Verrett, TCU

The Chargers' defense came around a bit in the second half of the year, but for the majority of the season they were allowing over 5 yards per offensive play. That means on average opposing teams would get a first down every two plays. That's insane. San Diego has a lot of needs (offensive line, wide receiver, corner, outside linebacker), but Verrett seems like a perfect pick at this point in the draft. The only negative about Verrett is his size (5'9 190 lbs). Despite his size, he is one of the best tackling corners in this draft. He would instantly upgrade this entire defense.

26. BROWNS: CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State

Joe Haden is one of the best corners in the league, but he has not had the luxury of having a complimentary corner on the other side of the field from him. Roby is a bit of a boom or bust player, but his size and athleticism will probably be too hard to pass up on for the Browns at this point.

27. SAINTS: DE Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

Cameron Jordan exploded last season for the Saints, but they still lack another 3-4 defensive end to play along side of him. Rex Ryan has raved about this guy and I'm sure he has compared notes with his brother Rob (the Saints' defensive coordinator). Tuitt has prototypical size (6'5 300 lbs) and would immediately put this defense on par with it's offense.

28. PANTHERS: WR Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State

The two biggest needs for the Panthers are wide receiver and offensive tackle. With all the elite tackles off the board, I think they will dip into the receiver pool. Benjamin has a lot of questions surrounding him, but his upside is too much to pass up at the bottom of the first round. At one point Benjamin and Mike Evans were thought of as very similar prospects. People are scared of what they are not used to. Just because there is no 6'5 240 pound receiver in the NFL does not mean there can't be one.

29. PATRIOTS: OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State

With Brandon Spikes headed to Buffalo, the Patriots need another starting linebacker. Shazier has been moving up draft boards. He has a great combination of athletic ability and instincts, which is rare. He seems like the exact type of player Bill Belichick covets.

30. 49ERS: NT Louis Nix III, Notre Dame

We all know that the 49ers' defense has been one of the best in the league for years now, but what they have always seemed to lack in a truly elite nose tackle. Nix is the best 3-4 nose tackle in this draft. His knee issue could scare teams away, but he has been an elite football player his entire football career and that should continue in the NFL, especially if he lands with a top tier franchise such as the 49ers. However, don't rule out a receiver here like Ole Miss' Donte Moncrief.

31. BRONCOS: DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota

The Broncos might be the most complete team in the NFL right now, so they realistically can go in any direction they want. Terrance Knighton had a solid season manning the middle of the defense, but he is more of a run stopper. Hageman is a converted tight end, so that just shows the type of athletic ability this guy has. He will take some work to turn into a productive pro, but John Fox is a defensive guy and would love to help mold this athletic beast into a polished player.

32. SEAHAWKS: G Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA

If the Broncos are the most complete team in the NFL, the Seahawks are not far behind. Their biggest weakness last season was the inconsistent play of their offensive line. Pete Carroll loves his PAC-12 players and Su'a-Filo grades out as a Pro Bowl caliber guard. He is probably the only player left on the board that could come in day one and be a starter for the Super Bowl champs.

No comments:

Post a Comment