Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning: The Giants offense clearly needed work after last season when Eli Manning threw a league high, and a career high, 25 interceptions. What did the Giants do? They let Steve Smith and Kevin Boss walk in free agency, as well as cut three long time starters on the offensive line. In a division with some scary pass rushers, Eli could be running for his life and throwing picks left and right again. I would not count on him as anything besides a solid backup fantasy quarterback.
Kevin Kolb: There was a lot of talk last season about Kolb being a number 1 fantasy quarterback, but that was with the plethora of weapons in Philly. Larry Fitzgerald is an unbelievable receiver, but he alone cannot make an offense effective, as we saw last year. With the loss starter Steve Breaston, they have even fewer weapons in the passing game than last season. Todd Heap is way past his prime and has a ton of injury concerns. If one of the Cardinals young receivers does not step up and become a legitimate starting receiver, Kolb could be in for a very long season.
Donovan McNabb: I do not think there was a single person more upset that the Vikings let Sidney Rice go in free agency than Donovan McNabb. I still think McNabb has a good amount left in the tank, but without Rice, the Vikings are very thin at receiver. McNabb has wanted a big, fast receiver like Rice his entire career, but he will now have to go another season without one. Percy Harvin is a good receiver, but he works best out of the slot. The Viking have two good tight ends, which will help in the red zone, but McNabb thrives on throwing passes deep downfield and I don’t think they have a player who can stretch the field.
Running Backs:
Chris Johnson: I can’t believe I am putting this guy on this list, but with the way his contract situation is progressing, or not progressing, there is a legitimate chance that he will not be starting for the Titans as the season opens. You cannot spend a top 4 pick on a guy who will not be starting day one. Even if Johnson comes back before the season starts, you have to wonder if he is in game shape and if he can stay healthy for a full season. Note: I personally drafted Johnson with the forth overall pick in my most recent draft, but I then went after running backs with my next two picks to make sure that I was prepared for life without Johnson. Might be worth the gamble, but it could blow up in my face very quickly.
Maurice Jones-Drew: If you can get him in the second round, jump on MJD. However, it is more than likely he will be going in the first round and that means he should be the player that dominates week in and week out. Coming of a knee injury worries me, but that is not the only concern. David Garrard and Blaine Gabbert both have looked terrible in the preseason and with the loss of Mike Sims-Walker, there is not a single proven receiver on the Jags’ offense. MJD will see a lot of 8 and 9 man fronts daring the Jags to throw the ball and I am not sure MJD can bust through those fronts like he has in the past.
Jahvid Best: With the loss of Mikel Leshoure for the season, Best will get a ton of opportunities to put up a crazy numbers in the Lions explosive offense. However, I do not believe that he can handle the feature role in Detroit. In his limited touches in the preseason, he has already had one concussion and fumbled the ball. Not a very good showing for a player most people will draft as a starting fantasy option. If you can land him in rounds 4-6 as a flex starter, he is worth the risk, but I would not draft him as a player you count on producing every week for you.
All of the Running Backs in Carolina: Yes, this includes the now highly paid DeAngelo Williams. If you did not watch the Panthers last season, and I would not blame you if you avoided watching that horror show, you would remember how much they struggled to run the ball with a healthy Willams and Jonathan Stewart. Steve Smith is well past his prime and they do not have ANYONE behind him on the depth chart. With Cam Newton starting at quarterback, there will only be a bigger defensive focus on stopping the Panthers’ run game because no one is afraid of Newton throwing the ball to those receivers. Do not expect a big season out of any of the Panthers’ backs unless one or two of them get knocked out for an extended period of time.
C.J. Spiller: As a guy who drafted him last season, I could be a bit biased, but from what I have seen out of Spiller has been a huge disappointment. There are rumors that the Bills might cut ties with Fred Jackson, which would change my fantasy opinion of Spiller, but as of now he is a guy you should avoid. As I said in my undervalued players list, Jackson is a solid player and should get the bulk of the Bills carries in 2011. Spiller looks at best like a Darren Sproles type of player who does not have much of a fantasy impact.
Wide Receivers:
Percy Harvin: As I said earlier, Harvin is much better suited as a complimentary receiver who works out of the slot and can make plays after the catch. With the loss of Sidney Rice, Harvin becomes the top receiver in Minnesota and will see a lot of double coverage, limiting his effectiveness. Also, Harvin has had a lot of durability issues and I am not sure he can stay healthy for a full season, let alone be a starting fantasy option all season.
Sidney Rice: Not only does Rice leaving the Vikes hurt Harvin’s fantasy potential, it all but kills Rice’s potential. We have seen time and time again big name receivers go to Seattle and immediately fade into obscurity. Now with Tarvaris Jackson as the starting quarterback, things can only get worse. Do not draft Rice as anything more than a number 3 receiver, no matter how large of a league you are in.
Marques Colston: This is a tough one to swallow because I have been a big Colston fan for a long time and he is a great story coming into the league as a 7th round draft pick. However, he is struggling with a knee injury and the Saints have more options in the passing game than any other team. All it takes is Colston slowing down a little bit for him to be forced to take a back seat to the other talented Saints’ receivers.
Steve Johnson: This guy came out of nowhere last season to put up huge numbers. However, that was as the Bills number 2 receiver when teams had to account for Lee Evans streaking down the field. The Bills trading Evans is yet another baffling move by one of the worst teams in the NFL and it hurts not only Johnson’s fantasy potential, but the entire team. Evans has been a team captain for years and this move makes no sense at any level. Do not expect Johnson to put up numbers anywhere near how he produced last year.
Plaxico Burress: Plaxico’s impact on the Jets will be significant this year, but that does not equate to fantasy success. The Jets are a run first team and Plax is still probably the third option in a limited passing game. He could score around 6-8 touchdowns, but I do not see him producing consistently enough to warrant more than a bench player in fantasy this season, especially with all of his injury concerns and the fact he has been away from football for almost three years.
Tight Ends:
Brandon Pettigrew: The Lions offense has a ton of weapons and that hurts Pettigrew’s potential. He saw a ton of targets last season because Matthew Stafford was out almost the entire year and their backup quarterbacks relied heavily on the tight end. However, Stafford looks good to go this year and seems to be ready for a break out season. With Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and rookie Titus Young creating a dangerous receiving corps, I do not see Pettigrew getting nearly as many opportunities in the passing game. The presence of Tony Scheffler hurts his fantasy appeal as well.
Zach Miller: Once again, the Seahawks seem to be a wasteland of receivers and Miller will be no exception. The Seahawks currently have seven, yes SEVEN, tight ends on their roster, including second round pick John Carlson, as well as two pass catching tight ends Pete Carroll coached at USC, Anthony McCoy and Dominique Byrd. While obviously they will not all make the team, Miller has a lot of competition for catches just from the tight end position, let alone all the wide receivers they have compiled.
Chris Cooley: Despite being one of the most consistent tight ends in the NFL, Cooley is struggling with a knee injury and may not be able to start the season opener. Since the Redskins have a very solid backup in Fred Davis, the Redskins will not rush Cooley back to action too early and he could sit out a few games into the season, which would not be good for fantasy owners. If you can stash him on your bench for awhile, take him, but don’t expect him to be in full form week one.
Jermaine Gresham: There has been a lot of talk about Gresham becoming a legit starting fantasy tight end this season, but I am not buying it. The Bengals signed Bo Scaife who should cut into Gresham’s targets. Jordan Shipley is a great slot receiver and will see a lot of third down targets over the middle of the field that might go to tight ends otherwise. Gresham should see a lot of red zone targets, but I don’t know if his overall production will be strong enough to warrant a starting role on your fantasy team.
Defense:
Detroit Lions: This has been a trendy pick in a lot of drafts and I have to go out and warn people that this is simply not a great idea. The Lions defense has been bad forever and one year is not going to solve all of their problems. The NFL has become a passing league and the Lions still have one of the worst secondaries in pro football. On top of that, their linebacking corps is below average and Kyle Vanden Bosch is their only decent defensive end, and will turn 33 during this season. I don’t care how good Ndamukong Suh is, he will not make this defense a fantasy starter every week, which is how they are being drafted. Also, Nick Fairley is injured and I don’t see him having a huge impact in the NFL this year.
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