Tuesday, August 23, 2011

UNDERVALUED FANTASY PLAYERS


People love putting together their list of sleepers, super sleepers, and breakout players. Let’s make this much simpler. Here are my top players who I believe are undervalued in most drafts. These are guys that you can target later than you may expect, but could end up being big steals that help you win a championship.

Quarterbacks:

Matt Schaub: The Texans’ offense should be one of the top scoring offenses in the league this year. Schaub has an unbelievable amount of weapons at his disposal and still has not reached his full potential. He has just turned 30, which for quarterbacks is the prime of their career, and should improve on his touchdown totals from last season with a healthy Owen Daniels back in the lineup.

Josh Freeman: One of the most underrated fantasy quarterbacks last season, Freeman scored just 11 points less than Drew Brees last season. He was unbelievably consistent and there is no reason he cannot put up similar, or even better, numbers than he did last year with the progression of this very young offense.

Matt Cassel: People have been very low on Cassel, who is coming off of a Pro Bowl year in which he threw a career high 27 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. He put up those elite numbers with one of the worst receiving corps in all of the NFL and with a rookie tight end. With the additions of Steve Breaston and rookie Jonathan Baldwin, as well as the progression of tight end Tony Moeaki, Cassel should have this offense rolling at full speed. I see the Chiefs throwing the ball more this year and having a more balanced attack after leading the league in rushing last season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Despite only starting 13 games last season, Fitzpatrick put up career numbers and seems to have stabilized the quarterback position for the Bills, which has plagued them for over a decade. Fitzpatrick will benefit from being named the starter before the season for the first time in his career. With one of the easier schedules in the NFL, he has the skills to be a borderline number 1 fantasy quarterback or at least a solid backup, despite the loss of Lee Evans.


Running Backs:
Peyton Hillis: It is hard to believe the guy that is on the cover of Madden 12 would be undervalued, but people have become really low on Hillis because of the other running backs in Cleveland. I am not buying it and I think the dreaded Madden Curse takes a year off. I cannot see Montario Hardesty taking many carries away from Hillis, despite being a second round pick. Hillis is a beast and there is no way they run him less than 15-20 times a game in an offense that is going to focus on the run to help out the development of young Colt McCoy. The pick up of Brandon Jackson has been massively overblown. He was a disappointment in Green Bay and will only get around 5 touches a game. Mostly Hardesty and Jackson are insurance for the Browns in case something happens to Hillis. Only injury will slow down Hillis and is well worth a second round pick.

Ryan Grant: Grant was taken in the second round of most drafts last year because he was one of the few “featured backs” in the NFL. He unfortunately only lasted one game last year and left the Packers looking for answers at the running back position all season. James Starks looked great at the end of the year and through the playoffs, but I still think Grant will be the lead guy for the Packers all season with Starks as a good compliment. Look for Grant to have a bounce back season.

LeGarrette Blount: Blount started the season as an undrafted rookie who did not know where his NFL career would start. The Bucs gave him a chance and it immediately paid off. He only started 7 games last season but still managed to put up over 1000 yards rushing with an unbelievable 5 yards a carry. With Cadillac Williams gone to St. Louis, Blount is now the unquestioned feature back in Tampa. Expect 1200-1300 yards and 10+ touchdowns from this young star.

Beanie Wells: The Cardinals offense was so bad last season, there is no way you could accurately judge any of their skill players. Wells had a horrible year after being considered a break out candidate. I am not sold that he can be a lead back in the NFL, but with the trade of Tim Hightower and the season ending injury to Ryan Williams, Wells will never have a better chance to show off what he has to offer the NFL. This guy has a lot of potential and he will be given more carries than almost any other back in the NFL in 2011.

Fred Jackson: C.J. Spiller has done nothing to prove to me that he can even be a decent third down back in the NFL. Jackson, on the other hand, has been consistently putting up good numbers on a terrible offense that gets few chances to run the ball since their defense seems to always let up 20 points in the first half. Jackson is now entrenched as the starting running back, the Bills have found a good starting quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and their defense looks to be making vast improvements. All of these things could lead to Jackson finally reaching his fantasy potential.

Pierre Thomas: I am very high on Mark Ingram being a great starting back in the NFL, but he has had a history of knee injuries, which is definitely a cause for concern and he has to learn a complex new offense. I have seen Thomas fall all the way into the last round of some drafts. If Ingram gets injured or just does not pick up the Saints complex offense fast enough, Thomas could turn into the lead back for the Saints and could be a great steal in the later rounds.


Wide Receivers:

Mike Sims-Walker/any of the Rams WRs: In case you have not heard, Josh McDaniels likes to throw the football a lot. As the new offensive coordinator in St. Louis, all of the Rams’ receivers will receiver a huge boost in fantasyland. He turned Brandon Lloyd from a no name to the top fantasy scoring receiver in the entire NFL. With Mark Clayton shopping himself around the NFL, it looks as if Sims-Walker will be seeing a prominent role in the Rams offense. Danny Amendola will see a lot of work out of the slot, much like Wes Welker in New England, and this could be the year Donnie Avery finally breaks out, but if I had to bet on one of these receivers, it would be Sims-Walker.

Mario Manningham: The Giants’ loss of both Steve Smith and Kevin Boss is a huge set back for this offense that helped Eli Manning throw a league high 25 interceptions last season. However, the Giants’ loss is fantasy owners’ gain as Manningham looks to start next to Hakeem Nicks. He should become a solid number 2-3 receiver worthy of a mid-round pick, but someone you might be able to land in the later rounds of most drafts.

Robert Meachem: With Marques Colston nursing a knee injury, Meachem is finally getting a lot of reps with the first team offense. He has yet to live up to the hype after being drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft, but he is finally healthy and looks like the explosive threat the Saints thought they were drafting.

Jacoby Ford: While Darren McFadden may be the most coveted player in a Raiders’ uniform, he is not the only Raider you should be targeting in your drafts. Ford came on late as a fantasy option last season, but he still managed to score 7 touchdowns in his rookie year. Look for him to improve on all of his numbers from last season as he is set to be a starting receiver for the Raiders this season, who should throw the ball a lot in 2011.

Pierre Garcon: Garcon had one of the most impressive catches of 2011, but he was not consistent enough to make much of a contribution for fantasy owners. I still believe he will start over Austin Collie and see a lot of targets from Peyton Manning once he gets back on the field. This could be his break out year as he proves he is the receiver that should start besides Reggie Wayne.

Malcolm Floyd: For the first half of the season, Floyd made Chargers fans forget about missing Vincent Jackson. He even had over 200 yards against the Raiders in Week 5. Jackson is back, but Phillip Rivers will not forget about how explosive and reliable Floyd can be when he is healthy.

Greg Little: There has been a lot of talk about the rookie receivers, A.J. Green and Julio Jones. However, I still believe Little is the rookie receiver to target in most drafts. Green is going to be playing with an inexperienced quarterback, whoever starts in Cincinnati, and has to compete for targets with Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham. Julio Jones also has stiff competition from Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, as well as being in an offense that will rely heavily on Michael Turner running the ball. However, despite being a rookie, Little is the best receiver on the Browns and already looks to have good chemistry with a much improved Colt McCoy. The Browns will be trailing a lot in games and Little could see a lot of targets this year.


Tight Ends:

Owen Daniels: Daniels might be the most underrated tight end in all of football, real or fantasy. Before getting injured in 2009, he was the top scoring fantasy tight end and he finished strong last season once he was fully healthy. He is a huge part of the Texans’ high-powered offense and could be a huge steal in the mid to late rounds.

Dustin Keller: Keller started off the season strong in 2010, but his production fell off steeply after the first few games. However, he has looked very good in the preseason and with the loss of Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith, Keller is the only receiver that has been with Mark Sanchez for two full years. Look for Sanchez to go to him often in the Jets’ offense that relies heavily on quick, short passes.

Jimmy Graham: In just five starts, Graham scored five touchdowns. Without Jeremy Shockey in that offense, Graham is set to start and should see a lot of end zone targets at 6’6 260lbs. Depending on how much time Colston misses, Graham might be Brees’ top option in the red zone.

Tony Moeaki: Since Todd Haley has been spending a lot of the off-season trying to find new ways to utilize Moeaki, this tells me that Haley sees Moeaki as one of the best receiving options for Matt Cassel. There are a lot of weapons on the Chiefs and this just shows you how good Moeaki can be, especially since he has been compared to fellow Iowa Hawkeye Dallas Clark. Look for him to be a solid starter that you can get at the end of your draft.

Jared Cook: With Kenny Britt’s starting status constantly up in the air over off the field issues, Cook may be the most reliable pass catcher on the Titans. The Titans allowed Bo Scaife walk in free agency because they knew Cook could pick up the slack. He has looked great in the preseason and could be Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite target throughout the season. With or without Chris Johnson, the Titans’ offense will be run heavy and utilize a lot of play action with Cook running over the middle of the field. In his third season, Cook should break out as a top 10 tight end who you can land at the very end of most drafts.

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