COLTS: WHAT SHOULD THEY DO?

Colts' owner Jim Irsay and new GM Ryan Grigson have a
very tough road ahead of them in rebuilding a franchise with
a fan base that is very accustomed to winning a lot of games.

The Colts lost their first 13 games this season, so they definitely have a lot of work to do. They were in the bottom five of almost every single major offensive and defensive categories. Rookie head coach Chuck Pagano and rookie GM Ryan Grigson do not have time to settle into their positions because the Colts probably have more crucial personnel decisions to make than any other team in the NFL.

While the big topic is what to do with Peyton Manning and his $28 million roster bonus, the Colts have to decide on what to do with their 13 free agents. Defensive end Robert Mathis, center Jeff Saturday, and receivers Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are their biggest free agents. It will be interesting to see who gets the franchise tag, if any of them.

The Colts could go in a lot of directions with their offseason, but here is what I think they should do.

Free Agency:

As tough as a decision this will be for a franchise that has built their entire organization around one player, the Colts have to release Peyton Manning. His contract is simply too massive and there is no guarantees that he will even play another down in the NFL. The Colts are rebuilding, which is something you do with a young quarterback, not one that is turning 36 in less than a month. The team has no choice but to move on and attempt to use the money they would have paid him to retain their young players. 

Pierre Garcon has made some incredible catches
in his time with the Colts, but does he deserve
to be paid like a number one receiver?

The Colts priority is to retain Garcon, which is definitely the right move. He has good size, above average speed, and the ability to make spectacular catches anywhere on the field. Despite all of this, he is still not a true number one receiver, but I think he wants to get paid like one. He apparently has already turned down a five year contract from the Colts, which is not a great sign. The Colts need to find a way to retain him, but they cannot afford to make the mistake of overpaying him either.

Their best option is to franchise Garcon in order to ensure that he is on the team at least for 2012. Paying him almost $10 million guaranteed is risky, but with over $30 million in cap space it is a risk worth taking. This way, they at least get to see if Garcon can be a number one guy in 2012 before they hand him out a big long term contract.

Reggie Wayne is all but gone. They need to retain Garcon and that does not leave room for Wayne to get paid like the number one receiver that he is. Wayne has been underpaid the majority of his career so he will be looking to get paid $8-10 million a year, but he might find the market for a receiver who is turning 34 during next season a lot softer than he would expect, especially since there are so many good receivers available in free agency and in the draft. Either way, Wayne will not be on the Colts in 2012.

Despite being even older than Wayne, Jeff Saturday needs to be retained for 2012. He is the heart and soul of this offense and his leadership will be invaluable with a new quarterback coming to town. Also, if he is not retained, the Colts have one more hole on their roster that has to be filled in some other way, so why not keep a team captain that is still playing at a high level?

Robert Mathis provides a bit of a question mark for the Colts because the Colts are attempting to switch to a 3-4 defense, meaning Mathis, who is under 250 pounds, would have to switch to outside linebacker. Pagano has to break down the game tape in order to see if he thinks Mathis will be able to make that switch or not, and if they are willing to shell out a lot of dough to a 31 year old. Personally, I think he is a better fit for the role than teammate Dwight Freeney, who is 32 himself.

I would attempt to keep Mathis with a three year contract around $25 million and see if there are any suitors for Freeney. The Falcons are most likely parting ways with their top pass rusher, John Abraham, so they could be willing to give up a lot to get their hands on a guy like Freeney. The Patriots are also in desperate need for a pass rusher, but I am not sure the Colts would trade such a valuable player to their long time rival. The Colts need as many picks as possible in the next two drafts in order to get this team back on track.

Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Matt Flynn, or Robert
Griffin will be starting in Indianapolis in 2012, but who
will the Colts decide on being the face of their franchise?

Speaking of draft picks, the Colts should take a long hard look at Matt Flynn before anointing Andrew Luck their starting quarterback. Luck is an amazing prospect, but we have seen time and time again quarterbacks taken in the first round falling on their faces in the NFL. I am not saying that will happen with Luck, but it is always a bit of a gamble. With Flynn, at least you have some NFL game tape, and Flynn could not have been more impressive in his limited time on the field.

I am not saying the Colts should take Flynn over Luck, but with the amount of picks that the Colts could get for the first overall spot, the Colts have to ask themselves if they would really be better with Luck on this team more than with Flynn and three high impact rookies. Just some food for thought.

The Colts will focus on retaining their players in free agency, but they will also be looking for help at defensive tackle and defensive back. They will not have the cap space to land an elite player, but they could definitely find some upgrades considering they are really lacking talent on the defensive side of the ball. I am sure Pagano would love to steal Lardarius Webb away from the Ravens, but it is unlikely the Ravens will let him leave and the Colts might not have the money to pay him anyway. Brandon Carr and Chris Carr (also from Pagano’s old team) are much more likely candidates.

Overview: The Colts have to retain Garcon and Saturday, which gives the offense a young playmaker and a wise veteran to provide leadership for what should be a very young offense in 2012. Their defensive struggles will not be fixed in one season, but they can start by keeping Mathis, getting help along the defensive line, and finding a starting cornerback. When healthy, Mathis and Freeney make up the most feared pass-rushing duo in the NFL, but that was not apparent in 2011 since offenses were able to run the ball down their throats thanks to weak interior defensive lineman and the fact the offense could not stay on the field. Finally, the Colts would be foolish to not at least work out Matt Flynn to see if they think he can be a franchise quarterback.

The Draft:

Could the Colts surprise everyone and trade the first overall
pick and take Trench Richardson, adding a physical
presence in the run game that this team has lacked for years?

Obviously, the Colts’ biggest decision is whether or not they take Luck with their first pick. If they get Flynn, they trade down and probably add one of the top offensive tackles or maybe even a guy like Trent Richardson, since the Colts have been in the bottom of the league in rushing for years. Also, Dontari Poe, who amazed scouts at the combine, would also be a great prospect to man the Colts’ nose tackle position in their new 3-4 defense. However, most likely they are taking Luck and they will be very happy to have him.

For the sake of this portion, let’s assume that the Colts have taken Luck because it is about 90% happening. The rest of the Colts’ draft will really depend on who is available when they pick since they have the “luxury” of taking the best player available since they need help at almost every position. If they keep Mathis and Freeney, they will not need to look for hybrid defensive ends/outside linebackers until the late rounds for depth. However, they need to add some serious talent and/or potential to the middle of their defensive line.

The Colts have not had a solid defensive tackle on their roster in probably a decade, but luckily the defensive tackle position is the deepest ground in the entire draft. Do not be surprised if the Colts go defensive tackle with the second and third picks back to back.

This defense also needs help at cornerback, especially since the corners on their roster right now are undersized and used to playing in zone coverage, not man coverage which they will play almost exclusively in Pagano’s defense. Look at how much Nnamdi Asomugh struggled last season going from playing in man coverage to playing mostly in zone coverage in Philly, and the switch from zone to man is much harder than the other way around. The Colts have to find a physical corner who can play man coverage somewhere in this draft even if they land a corner in free agency. Strong safety is also a bit of a concern, but with so many other issues, it will probably not get addressed until the later rounds.

The Colts also must find at least some depth along their offensive line because it is a unit that has really struggled the last few years. Hopefully second year player Anthony Castonzo will make solid progress and hold down the fort at left tackle for years, but the rest of their line besides Saturday leaves a lot to be desired. The rookie offensive line group also looks to be fairly deep, so they should be able to find at least a solid swing backup player in case of injury or decline in production.

Overview: Obviously, this is a huge project for the Colts and they are not likely to address all of their needs in one year, but this will be the season in which their decisions make or break the next five years of this franchise. With so many needs on both sides of the ball, I would not be surprised if they take a hard look into trading the first overall pick, but it is still very unlikely to happen.