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| New location, same drama. |
This should be one of the more interest drafts in recent memory. There is so much depth at the top of this draft that teams could go in so many different directions. So many players who were once thought to be top 10 picks are falling fast, and could even fall out of the first round entirely.
Here is my best guess at what might happen tomorrow.
1. BUCCANEERS: QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
This pick should be DT Leonard Williams, but the Bucs are down on Mike Glennon and feel like they need to improve the quarterback position. With so many needs, this feels like a move that will get this entire staff fired within the next few years, but I have been wrong before (see Cam Newton). I hope Winston plays up to his draft spot, but if I was a gambling man, I'd put my money on him not lasting too long as a starting quarterback.
2. TITANS: DT Leonard Williams, USC
The only intelligent thing the Titans have done in recent years is draft Jurrell Casey, a defensive lineman from USC. They will double down on the position and build from the inside out. The Bucs might have the top pick this year, but the Titans are the worst team in the league. There is not a single position they should feel comfortable with, which is why there is so much dissension about this pick. Marcus Mariota will be in the conversation at this pick (either the Titans or someone who trades up to this pick), but the Titans are so far off from competing that they have to take the best player available. Williams gives them a strong defensive line that will help out all those aging edge rushers they signed in free agency. Makes too much sense to not happen if the Titans stay in this pick.
3. JAGUARS: DE Dante Fowler, Florida
Coach Gus Bradley has to hate fielding such a pathetic defense every week. Fowler will help that tremendously, as he is the safest and most talented defensive end in this draft. Amari Cooper will get a long look, but after drafting two second round receivers in 2014 and signing Julius Thomas to a long contract, you have to think the Jags will be looking defense.
4. RAIDERS: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
If Leonard Williams falls to this spot, the Raiders will make their pick faster than anyone in league history. However, Cooper is about as good as a plan B as the Raiders could ever hope for. If Al Davis was still alive, this pick unquestionably would be Kevin White. Cooper is the best and safest pick at receiver in a draft loaded with talented pass catchers. Derek Carr needs a reliable receiver, and Cooper grades out very similar to Sammy Watkins from last season.
5. REDSKINS: DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky
Brian Orakpo is gone from a defense that lacked punch even with him. Elite pass rushers are right behind quarterbacks in value in the draft and the Redskins will not let this guy slip past them. Unless of course they trade out of this pick, which could be very very likely.
6. JETS: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
If the Jets stay here AND Mariota lasts to this pick, they pretty much have no choice but to draft the former Heisman Trophy winner. Do not be surprised if the Jets trade out of this pick to a team that really wants Mariota. There is no guarantee Mariota is any better than Geno Smith any time soon, and the Jets have a lot of holes to fill on their roster. A trade down here would make a lot of sense.
7. BEARS: NT Danny Shelton, Washington
Kevin White will get a long look as a replacement to Brandon Marshall, but defense is a much bigger need. Dominant nose tackles are very hard to find, especially ones that are as big and quick as Shelton. The Bears lack much of anything on their defensive line, so Shelton would be a huge upgrade.
8. FALCONS: DE/LB Vic Beasley, Clemson
New coach Dan Quinn is praying that he can land one of the top three pass rushers to help out what was a defense that let up more yards than any other team last season. Beasley is the last of the elite pass rushers (at least the ones without huge character/injury concerns). Do not be surprised if my 7th and 8th picks switch because the Bears and Falcons needs are very similar. Todd Gurley could be a very real possibility here as well.
9. GIANTS: WR Kevin White, West Virginia
With all the depth at receiver in this draft, do not be surprised if teams in need of receiver go after other positions first and come back around to draft a pass catcher in the second round. The Giants always seem to take advantage of other teams' mistakes, so look for them to stick firmly to best player available. White is the best player here, and while receiver is not a huge need, putting white next to last year's rookie of the year will insure that the Giants get the most out of the waining years of Eli Manning.
10. RAMS: OT Brandon Sherff, Iowa
With the departure of Jake Long, the Rams are once again looking for an answer along their offensive line. Greg Robinson looks to take over the left tackle spot, so Sherff would be a perfect fit as he could fill in as a right tackle or guard due to his versatility. Sherff could go as high as 5th overall so this would be a great pick for a team that has not had a legit offense in about a decade or so.
11. VIKINGS: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State
There simply are not a lot of tall corners who can run in the 4.3 range. Waynes is the best corner in this draft and would be a huge upgrade for Mike Zimmer's defense.
12. BROWNS: WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
If the Browns can stay at twelve and still land Parker, they will be ecstatic. This is the big, physical receiver that the Browns thought they had when they drafted Greg Little, Brian Robiskie, Braylon Edwards..... Let's just say they have been looking for this guy for quite some time.
13. SAINTS: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
Another tall corner comes off the board. Rob Ryan, much like his brother, needs as many man cover corners as he can get. The signing of Brandon Browner is a short term fix to a long term problem. Johnson is exactly what Ryan looks for in a corner and allows Ryan a lot of flexibility with the type of sub packages he can throw at offenses.
14. DOLPHINS: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
There is a very strong possibility that this guy goes in the top 10, but I think the teams in the top 10 all have so many needs that it would be hard for them to gamble on a running back who might not be ready to play week one. Lamar Miller had a career year for the Dolphins last year, but he is in the final year of his rookie contract and his presence will not stop the Dolphins from drafting a legit game changer. The fact that the Fins have zero depth behind Miller only make this pick make more sense.
15. 49ERS: OT/OG Ereck Flowers, Miami
Flowers is described as a large, mauling offensive lineman. That sounds an awful lot like departed guard Mike Iupati. This offense struggled a lot last season and they are not paying Colin Kaepernick $17 million per year to run an offense that ranks as one of the worst scoring offenses in the league. Every mock draft I have seen has DE Arik Armstead going to the 49ers, and that is exactly why it probably will not happen.
16. TEXANS: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The safety position has been a rotating door for the Texans as of late, and current starter, D.J. Swearinger is on the trade block. The safety position is the weakest position in the draft, so you have to imagine the Texans are planning on taking a safety high if they are willing to give up on a safety as young as Swearinger.
17. CHARGERS: OT D.J. Humphries, Florida
What better way to try to keep Philip Rivers in San Diego (or where ever the Chargers will be the next few years) than to try to give him a legit left tackle. Humphries is a highly gifted tackle prospect that could start day one at left tackle for the Chargers.
18. CHIEFS: DE Arik Armstead, Oregon
Andy Reid only drafts offensive and defensive lineman in the first round. Armstead is an athletic freak that could be a dominant defensive end if the mental part of his game ever catches up to his natural abilities.
19. BROWNS: DT Malcolm Brown, Texas
The Browns were one of the worst in the league against the run last season, and it does not help that they are in a division that loves to run the ball. Brown gives them a big, physical body to eat up space in the middle of their defense. The more people watch game tape on Brown, the higher he is moving up draft boards.
20. EAGLES: WR Breshad Perriman, Central Florida
Chip Kelly wants to take a defensive player with this pick, but the way the board has fallen, he simply cannot pass on someone as talented as Perriman who fills a big need. If Perriman can replace even half of Jeremy Maclin's 2014 production, Kelly has made this team exceptionally stronger with all of his bold offseason moves.
21. BENGALS: FS Damarious Randall, Arizona State
Like I said earlier, there are not a lot of good safeties in this draft, and Randall is flying up boards due to his coverage skills. The Bengals are one of the deepest teams in the NFL, so they can take a chance on a guy with a lot of upside.
22. STEELERS: DE/LB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
The Steelers biggest need might be corner, but they also lack a legit outside rusher. Gregory has some character concerns, but this is a guy that was being considered as a top five pick. If the Steelers think they can work with this kid, they will pounce all over the opportunity to add him to their team.
23. LIONS: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
There is a good chance this guy goes a lot higher, but the Lions need help protecting Matt Stafford in order for him to make the jump to an elite quarterback. Peat can play both left and right tackle, so it gives the Lions flexibility along their line.
24. CARDINALS: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
Aside from injured quarterbacks, the Cardinals biggest weakness last year was their run game. Gordon is a perfect compliment to Andre Ellington and adds some punch to their run game.
25. PANTHERS: OT Jake Fisher, Oregon
This guy is flying up draft boards because more and more teams are seeing him as a potential left tackle, which you cannot say about most of the remaining tackles. The Panthers have no bigger need than left tackle, but Fisher might have the upside to legitimately warrant taking him this high.
26. RAVENS: WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
Green-Beckham is the perfect compliment to Steve Smith. Despite what Ravens' camp is saying, they need another receiver after the loss of Torrey Smith. Joe Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, so Green-Beckham could spend his entire rookie year running go routes streaking down the field. He will take time to develop, but he might be well worth the time.
27. COWBOYS: CB Jalen Collins, LSU
Everyone wants to Cowboys to draft a running back, but with the top two guys off the board already, they are forced to address the weakness in the defensive backfield. Do not be surprised if they go defense even if one of the top two running backs are still on the board.
28. BRONCOS: C Cameron Erving, Florida State
Center has been a bit of an issue for the Broncos the last couple of seasons, so landing the top center at the end of round one makes a lot of sense. Erving has the athleticism to play all over the offensive line, so he has more value than your average center.
29. COLTS: OT La'el Collins, LSU
Collins is being brought in for questioning in regards to a recent murder, but the police have stated that Collins is not a suspect. Obviously this raises a lot of red flags due to that whole Aaron Hernandez thing, but hopefully so long as he is actually blameless in this case, it will not be held against him. The Colts need help along their offensive line and Collins could fit in immediately at right tackle or either guard spot.
30. PACKERS: CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
This offseason has not been kind to the Packers' defensive backfield. They lost a lot of bodies and need to replenish their talent pool. Jones put on one heck of a show at the combine, and his ability to play both corner and free safety make him a perfect fit for the Packers.
31. SAINTS: WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
While Strong does not grade out as an elite receiver, he has all the skills it takes to be quite a force in Sean Payton's offense. He is a big, reliable receiver that will win a lot of jump balls for his quarterback. He could catch 80-90 passes from Drew Brees in his rookie year alone. He is the perfect replacement for Marques Colston, who has very little left in the tank.
32. PATRIOTS: CB Marcus Peters, Washington
With the departure of both Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats are lacking a true number one corner and depth at the position. Peters' talent is too much to pass up despite his character concerns. This is the type of guys the Patriots turn into an All Pro on a consistent basis.
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