Wednesday, April 26, 2017

2017 NFL Mock Draft


The word around the horn is that there has never been this much uncertainty surrounding a draft in a long, long time. It is mostly because the 49ers are a total wild card sitting at the second pick. If they stay at two, they have so many needs that they really could take anyone. However, they are more likely to trade out of the pick, but who will move up? Will it be for a quarterback? Top defensive player? Or one of the top running backs?


ROUND 1
1. Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

There is a lot of quarterback talk around this pick, but I really see no scenario in which the Browns pass on Garrett. He is the best player in the draft and plays a premier position (pass rusher). You simply don't pass on these types of players.

2. TRADE ALERT: Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco 49ers): Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Cam Newton is coming off his worst season as a pro and shoulder surgery. They need to protect him from taking a beating, especially in the red zone. In a weak offensive line class, the best way to do that is get a big, dynamic power running back. Everyone is mocking Christian McCaffrey to them with the eighth pick, but this is the team that gave Mike Tolbert a $10 million deal, aka they like power runners. The 49ers want out of this pick bad and I think the Panthers don't give up all that much to get here.

3. Chicago Bears: Jamal Adams, S, LSU

If the Bears pass on Adams, they will regret it. He fills a huge need for them (seriously, who was the last top notch safety in Chicago?), and he is arguably the best overall player in the entire draft. He has the leadership, football IQ, and athleticism to be a Pro Bowl safety year one.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

The Jags would love to see Fournette sitting here, but that is why the Panthers need to make a bold move up to grab him. Calais Campbell was a big addition for this team, but he is 30 years old and cannot play forever. Adding Thomas would make their D-line the strength of the team.

5. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams): Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State

Aside from generally adding offensive weapons for Marcus Mariota, cornerback is the Titans' biggest need. Yes, there is a lot of depth at corner in this draft, but I would be shocked if the Titans did not draft at least two corners before the draft is over anyway, so why not get the best one in the draft? The Titans are a prime candidate to trade down with a team that needs a quarterback, but I really just don't think anyone wants one of these QBs bad enough to pay the price to get up to the fifth pick.

6. New York Jets: Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

This is another possible trade down spot of QB needy teams, but again I do not think anyone will pay the Jets' price. Hooker is coming off an injury, but he should be back by the start of the season either way. With 2017 looking to be a mulligan for the Jets either way, they should not think twice about grabbing Hooker at this spot.

7. Los Angeles Chargers: Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

The Chargers would love for one of the top safeties to fall in their laps, but they are both gone already. Allen is one of the biggest wild cards of the top 10 because so much is unclear about his medical reports. He could go as high as two to the 49ers, but he could also fall much lower than this. I think the Chargers might fall for the idea of Allen and Corey Liuget anchoring the middle of their defense, while rookie of the year Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram come off the edges. AFC West quarterbacks watch out.

8. TRADE ALERT: San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina Panthers): Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

I do not think the Bills or Browns want Trubisky enough to leap frog the 49ers in order to get him. The 49ers have as many needs as any team in the league, so they really could draft anyone at this point. However, I think they will feel better about over-drafting a quarterback if they are able to trade down and still get the top guy on their board.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

No team in the NFL has lost more talent in the last two years than the Bengals, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. AJ Green can only carry this offense so far, and he is coming off a significant injury. Williams offers a perfect compliment to Green, as Green is one of the best deep ball receivers in the NFL and Williams can work the underneath routes.

10. Buffalo Bills: O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

The Bills need a can't miss player at this point and Howard might be the safest pick in the draft. He is the do it all tight end. He has the speed to burn most linebackers, the size to physically dominate most DBs, and was the best blocking tight end in college football. I would be shocked if he fell out of the top 10.

11. New Orleans Saints: Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan

Mr. Taco (I know that's his first name, but had to do it) has been falling in a lot of mock drafts, but I am not really buying it. The Saints need a corner, and I think Gareon Conley would have been the pick not for the rape charge (more on that later), but there is crazy depth at corner this year and the Saints have another first rounder they can use on a corner. Taco has the most upside of any player left on the board and the Saints have Cameron Jordan to help mentor the young defensive end. New Orleans need to get better upfront or it will not matter who they have at corner.

12. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia Eagles): Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Does it make sense for the Browns to draft a quarterback with all the holes they have on their roster and a very good shot at having the top overall pick again in next year's draft? Doesn't matter, they need a quarterback and Watson has all the physical tools to become a top tier starting quarterback. He is definitely not a slam dunk, but he is the type of leader that you want as the face of your franchise.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama

The Cardinals lost a lot of talent this offseason, but their biggest hole on their roster is a legit CB2 to play next to All Pro Patrick Peterson. They are too close to a Super Bowl caliber squad to reach on a project at quarterback, so cross that right off the list unless they move down in the draft. Humphrey has all the tools to succeed in the NFL and would be a massive upgrade for the Cards.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota Vikings): Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

If McCaffrey lasts until #14, watch how quickly the Eagles race to the podium to draft him. This would be a great landing spot for McCaffrey, as this offense is a perfect fit for his skills and would allow him to grow with last year's first round pick Carson Wentz.

15. Indianapolis Colts: Cam Robinson, T, Alabama

Back to back first round picks on Alabama offensive linemen for the Colts (they drafted Ryan Kelly last year)? Yes, yes, and more yes. Andrew Luck is the highest paid player in the league and the Colts have done an atrocious job of protecting him. I do not care how bad the Colts defense is, the top priority is protecting Luck. Defense can wait for round two.

16. Baltimore Ravens: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee

Barnett is another defensive end that is slipping in mock drafts, and again, not buying it. People point to an average combine, but that is something the media cares more about than GMs. Bottom line, Barnett had double digit sacks in all three seasons in Tennessee, going up against the best offensive linemen in college football. The Ravens need a pass rush in the worst way and will be thrilled if he is still here for them.

17. Washington Redskins: Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama

I think this is as far as Foster will fall in this year's draft. His ejection from the combine along with his failed drug test definitely hurt him big time, but his size is also a concern (he weight in at under 230 pounds), so teams will have to scheme around him a big to help utilize his skill set. Luckily for him, he is exactly what the Redskins need, so I don't think they will be able to pass on him at this point.

18. Tennessee Titans: Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

This is basically the best case scenario for the Titans. They get the top corner with the fifth pick and get arguably the best receiver in the draft at eighteen. Davis is only still available because he has been injured all offseason and was not able to run the 40 yard dash. Keenan Allen was viewed similarly and he has had no trouble burning NFL defensive backs after falling to the third round.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

If the Bucs pass on Cook, there is a good chance he falls out of the first round entirely. He has off the field issues and fumbling issues, which might knock him off some team's big board entirely. However, he has the ability to become a Jamaal Charles type running back, which just so happens to be the missing piece to the Bucs' offense. If they pass on Cook, tight end David Njoku would also be a nice fit for them.

20. Denver Broncos: Garett Bolles, T, Utah

This is the weakest offensive line class in years, so the Broncos know that they need to grab a tackle quick if they think they are going to find a starter in this draft. Bolles is the most likely to succeed out of this weak draft class as a left tackle, so they will throw him into the lineup day one. Can't be much worse than what they put out last season.

21. Detroit Lions: Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

There are a lot of holes on the Lions defense, but none larger than their need for an impact middle linebacker. Reddick has made a lot of money for himself this offseason, having a great Senior Bowl and combine. There is talk he could be a top 10 pick, but I think he is too raw of a prospect in a deep defensive class to go that high.

22. Miami Dolphins: Forrest Lamp, G, Western Kentucky

Branden Albert is out the door so that last year's first round pick Laremy Tunsil can slide from guard into that left tackle spot. Plugging Lamp in at guard makes the offensive line a strength of the team, helping out both Ryan Tannehill and second year star Jay Ajayi. Win win.

23. New York Giants: Ryan Ramczyk, T, Wisconsin

The Giants need help all along the offensive line and Ramczyk can play numerous positions. Is he a tackle? Is he a guard? Whatever he is, he is better than what the Giants have.

24. Oakland Raiders: Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida

What a change a few seasons make. The Raiders went from a perennial sub .500 team to one of the deepest rosters in the NFL. Middle linebacker was a big need before Malcolm Smith jumped ship, so landing a player of Davis' caliber here should be considered a big win. He has strong leadership skills and above average athleticism. What more do you want from a middle linebacker?

25. Houston Texans: Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech

There is a very good chance Mahomes does not make it this far, but he is just so raw and so turnover prone, I have a hard time believing that a team is going to make a big jump from round two to beat the Texans at this pick. Tom Savage will start in 2017, but Mahomes will take over mid-season or in 2018.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Kevin King, CB, Washington

Cornerback was a need for the Seahawks before they put Richard Sherman on the trade block. I doubt Sherman gets traded this year, but that does not mean he makes it through the two years left on his contract with the Seahawks. Either way, King is a scheme fit and is a local product. Works on so many levels it has to happen, right?

27. Kansas City Chiefs: Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU

There are a lot of directions that the Chiefs can go here, but if the top three quarterbacks are off the board, I think they go defense. They need a complimentary corner to play next to Marcus Peters and White would be a different style corner that would mesh well in this defense. Its hard for me to not mock an offensive or defensive lineman to an Andy Reid team, but he might actually go in a different direction this year.

28. Dallas Cowboys: Charles Harris, DE, Missouri

Harris could go as high as 11 to the Saints, so this would put a big smile on Jerry Jones' face. Jones noted that the Cowboys need a "war daddy" and Harris will give him just that.

29. Green Bay Packers: Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan

At this point in the draft, Peppers is a huge value. He was a dominant college football player and can play so many different positions. Throw in the fact that he looks like a clone of Micah Hyde, who just left Green Bay for Buffalo, and you have a situation where value meets need.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers: David Njoku, TE, Miami

I have no idea how to pronounce Njoku, but I do think he's going to be a hell of a player. There is no way that he falls past the Steelers, and he would be a good fit for the Titans, Bucs, and Giants. Outside of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh really does not have much to work with in terms of offensive weapons, which was exposed in the AFC Championship game. Njoku would add an element to this offense they thought they were getting when they signed Ladarius Green to a $20 million contract.

31. Atlanta Falcons: Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA

Take a risk on a high upside pass rusher to pair with NFL sack leader Vic Beasley? Sounds like a good plan to me. McKinley is raw and has some medical concerns, but he has a similar skill set as fellow UCLA pass rusher Anthony Barr, who went in the top ten a few years back.

32. New Orleans Saints (from Patriots): Adoree' Jackson, CB, USC

Like I said earlier, the Saints need a corner really, really bad. Jackson may be a bit raw, but he is the best athlete in this draft and can be a Pro Bowl special teamer while he learns how to be a starting corner in the league. I am sure Sean Payton could find a way to use him on offense, the way he was used at USC.


NOTABLE FALLERS:
-John Ross, WR, Washington: The fastest man in the history of the combine not in the first round? Well, he has some medical concerns to add to his slender build. DeSean Jackson fell to the second round for very similar reasons.

-T.J. Watt, LB, Wisconsin: In a draft this deep, especially on the defensive side of the ball, there are bound to be some really good players who do not hear their names called on day one. Though J.J.'s little brother will not have to wait long on day two.

-Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: The situation with Conley is very sad no matter how it shakes out. Just days before the draft, he was accused of raping a woman in a hotel. Either she is lying in order to try to get money out of him before she totally destroys his chances of being drafted into the NFL, or another football player has committed an unspeakable act against a woman (something becoming all too common). There is no way anyone touches him in the first round and there is a good chance he does not get drafted at all.

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