Tuesday, May 3, 2011

NFC North Draft Grades


Bears: B+
R1 Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
R2 Stephen Paea, DT Oregon St.
R3 Chris Conte, DB Cal
R5 Nathan Enderle, QB Idaho
R6 James Thomas, LB West Virginia

The Bears did one of the best jobs of any team in this year’s draft to really hit on all of their biggest needs. Their biggest needs in this order where: offensive line, defensive tackle, and defensive back. Notice anything? In the first three rounds they drafted an offensive tackle, a defensive tackle, and a safety. Carimi proclaimed himself as the best tackle in this year’s draft and I cannot believe he fell all the way to the 29th pick for the Bears. He is a big, mean tackle who plays with a lot of emotion and is an effective run and pass blocker. The Bears will probably leave Chris Williams at left tackle for one more year and play Carimi at right tackle to give him a year to get used to the NFL. The Bears traded up a few spots in the second round to land Paea, who put up a record 49 bench presses of 225lbs at the NFL Combine. However, he is not just a workout warrior. Paea is able to collapse the pocket against both the run and pass, making him the perfect replacement for Tommy Harris. He will be on the field all game long and offenses will have to double team him, making Julius Peppers’ life a lot easier. Conte is a tall, hard hitting safety with above average speed who could play immediately in nickel and dime defensive formations. Enderle was clearly a Mike Martz pick and he must have seen something in him that most talent evaluators did not. Thomas is a tough, hard working linebacker who will start out on special teams and could earn time as a starter alongside Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.

I really like all of the Bears’ picks except Enderle. They saw that Caleb Hanie could start for Cutler in case he misses a few games. With only five picks in the draft, they could not afford to take a third string developmental quarterback when they have a franchise quarterback. This move only brings up more questions to their commitment to Jay Cutler as their starter, especially when they could have drafted another solid receiver or lineman who could have helped Cutler out in that offense. They did a good job of addressing some of their needs, but they could have made better use of their later picks. 


Lions: B+
R1 Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
R2 Titus Young, WR Boise St.
R2 Mikel Leshoure, RB Illinois
R5 Douglas Hogue, LB Syracus
R7 Johnny Culbreath, OT South Carolina St.

I still think that Fairley is more than likely going to be a bust, but Detroit was the best landing spot for him. Ndamukong Suh is already the best 4-3 defensive tackle in the NFL despite being a rookie last year. Suh will lead by example and Fairley will have to really not care about football to not get excited about playing next to this guy. Suh is an unbelievably passionate and hard working player, on top of being a freakish athlete. Fairley does not have Suh’s potential, but he is not far off. If Suh can keep Fairley out of trouble off the field and keep him motivated on the field, Fairley and Suh could be the most dominant defensive tackle duo the NFL has seen in a very long time. All the other teams in the NFC North better begin looking for upgrades at their interior offensive lineman because they will have their hands full on every down they play against these two. I would have liked to see them draft an offensive tackle of defensive end, since those are bigger needs and there were quality players available at those positions. However, if Fairley pans out, he could help solidify a Lions’ defense that has been the laughing stock of the NFL for years. All defensive ends in the league will be dying to get a chance to play on the outside of these two.

The Lions had a very limited amount of picks in this draft, but they hit on all of them. Titus Young will turn into a highly productive slot receiver with great speed and hands, as well as contribute as an explosive kick and punt returner. Mikel Leshoure is the perfect back to pair with Jahvid Best. Leshoure can wear down defenses and get the tough yards, leaving Best fresh and healthy to break off long runs and be a dangerous weapon in the passing game. Hogue will help out the Lions’ special teams while he tries to work his way into the linebacker rotation, which is a big weakness for the Lions. Culbreath is a developmental offensive tackle prospect that most likely will not make it on their roster.

The Lions opted to surround Matthew Stafford with weapons instead of trying to give him offensive lineman to protect him. I believe this is a significantly less effective way of helping a quarterback progress, especially one that has injury concerns. Look at the success of Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford. In both of their rookie years, their teams lacked play making receivers, but they both had solid offensive line play. Sanchez took his team to the AFC Championship game and Bradford threw for over 3,500 yards. Meanwhile, Stafford already has one of the best receivers in the NFL, but has yet to make an impact on his team because he has been getting destroyed by defenders due to poor offensive line play. For whatever baffling reason, the Lions continue to ignore this deficiency on their roster. You can add as many running backs and receivers that you want, but if the offensive line can’t open up holes for those running backs or protect Stafford long enough for him to get the ball to his receivers, it will make no difference. It only takes one failed assignment by an offensive lineman for Stafford to be knocked out for the entire season. I still really like the players they picked up in the draft, but until they fix that offensive line, they will be picking in the bottom half of the draft year in and year out.


Packers: A
R1 Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St.
R2 Randall Cobb, WR Kentucky
R3 Alex Green, RB Hawaii
R4 Davon House, CB New Mexico St.
R5 D.J. Williams, TE Arkansas
R6 Caleb Schlauderaff, OL Utah
R6 D.J. Smith, LB Appalachian St.
R6 Ricky Elmore, DE/OLB Arizona
R7 Ryan Taylor, TE UNC
R7 Lawerence Guy, DE/DT Arizona St.

Coming into this draft, the Packers were by far the deepest and most talented team in the NFL, especially when you consider they had around 15 guys go on injured reserve last season and they still won the Super Bowl. Despite already having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, they really focused on that side of the ball in order to protect their most valuable asset: Aaron Rodgers. Most people had the Packers taking a defensive player at the end of the first round, but when Derek Sherrod fell to them, they jumped all over him. He will eventually take over the left tackle spot that is still being manned by Chad Clifton, who will be 35 before the start of the 2011 season. To start the season, he will probably play right tackle and they will move last year’s first round pick, Bryan Bulaga from right tackle to left guard. In the second round, they landed one of my favorite receivers in this draft, Randall Cobb. This guy reminds me a lot of Percy Harvin without the medical concerns. He played a similar role at Kentucky that Harvin did at Florida. Cobb is a receiver, but also played as a running back and a quarterback in the wildcat offense, which could add a new dimension to the Packers’ offense. Cobb is a tough, small slot receiver that has great hands and is not afraid to make a catch over the middle. Alex Green is another weapon for Rodgers. He is a tough, hard nosed runner that also has reliable hands out of the backfield. He might take a little while to get used to the pro game since he exclusively ran out of the spread offense, but he could turn into a valuable back in the Packers’ offense.

Taking House in the forth round was their first and only significant defensive prospect they took in this draft. He is a very raw player, but he has the size (6’1, 200 lbs) and speed to possibly develop into a starter at cornerback in their bump and run defense. D.J. Williams is an H-back type tight end that will mostly be used as another pass catcher for Rogers and an insurance policy in case Jermichael Finley has another medical set back. Schlauderaff will be a backup lineman if he is able to make this roster. Smith is an undersized linebacker and will probably just play on special teams, but could see some time at middle linebacker if they don’t retain Nick Barnett. Ricky Elmore, no relation to me, is a great late round selection. He had 21 sacks in his last two years at Arizona and could be a valuable pass rusher in the Packers’ blitz happy defense. Ryan Taylor will probably mostly be used on the Packers’ kickoff return team as a blocker if he makes the roster. Lawrence Guy has good size (6’4, 305 lbs) and could develop into a rotational defensive end for the Packers.

The Packers are the best team in their division and they still added the most talent out of anyone in the division, including at numerous positions of need for them. I cannot get over how good Ted Thompson is at finding talent and how impressive it is that Mike McCarthey and his coaching staff consistently develop that talent into productive football players. I am sure at least one of these late round guys will develop into an impact player for this football team.


Vikings: B+
R1 Christian Ponder, QB Florida St.
R2 Kyle Rudolph, TE Notre Dame
R4 Christian Ballard, DE Iowa
R5 Brandon Burton, CB Utah
R6 Demarcus Love, OL Arkansas
R6 Mistral Raymond, DB South Florida
R6 Brandon Fusco, OL Slippery Rock
R6 Ross Homan, LB Ohio St.
R7 D’Aundre Reed, DL Arizona
R7 Stephen Burton, WR West Texas A&M

The grade for the Vikings in this draft all comes down to Christian Ponder’s play over the next few years. I think he is a perfect fit for the Vikings offense and he could produce immediately with all of the offensive weapons on that roster. The Vikings MUST resign Sidney Rice in order for Ponder to have immediate success. Rice is an unbelievable playmaker and is a reliable asset to a young quarterback, or even a very old quarterback. Favre looked like a completely different player in 2010 compared to 2009, most of that is due to the absence of Rice in that offense. Ponder will look like a vet throwing jump balls up to Rice, as well as his huge tight ends: Viasanthe Shiancoe and second round pick Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph is a complete tight end, which is very rare. He is big, strong and has great hands. He has the size and strength to develop into a great run blocker and he will get plenty of practice at that with Adrian Peterson in the backfield.

Many people believe Christian Ballard has more potential than his old teammate at Iowa, first round pick Adrian Clayborn. He is a perfect fit for the Vikings defense because he compliments Jared Allen well. Ballard can play left end across from Allen on first and second down and then move to defensive tackle in third down and passing situations. Burton is a big, Cover-2 corner who could develop into a starter for the Vikings, or might be forced into a starting role due to the lack of talent the Vikings have at corner. Love and Fusco will probably be battling each other for a spot on the roster and one of them will be a backup guard with the chance to develop into a starter. Raymond is a tall cover corner who should be able to make the team because of a lack of depth at corner and will at least help out on special teams. Homan presents great value for a late sixth round pick. He can contribute immediately on special teams and could end up starting at OLB for the Vikings 4-3 defense. If he makes the roster, Reed adds depth to a depleted defensive line. Stephen Burton has a lot of raw talent but it will be very hard for him to make the Vikings roster unless they let Rice walk or cut Bernard Berrian, which is probably more likely than not.

Overall, I am a big fan of the Vikings’ draft. The Vikings had a ton of needs, especially since this is a team that was an interception away from going to a Super Bowl two years ago. Their biggest need was at quarterback and Ponder was the best quarterback available at the 12th pick, and he was my top rated quarterback in this draft. They then drafted probably the best player available with Rudolph, who adds another weapon for their new quarterback. Tight end was also a need for them considering they really had no depth behind Visanthe Shiancoe, who will be 31 at the start of the season and missed some playing time last season due to injury. They also hit on their needs at offensive and defensive line, as well as cornerback. That is a lot of holes to fill for one draft and I am sure not all of these draft picks will turn into productive players, but if Ponder and about half of their other picks produce for them, this will be a very successful draft. 

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