Thursday, May 5, 2011

NFC West Draft Grades

49ers: B
R1 Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
R2 Colin Kaepernick, QB Nevada
R3 Chris Culliver, CB South Florida
R4 Kendall Hunter, RB Oklahoma St.
R5 Daniel Kilgore, OL Appalachian St.
R6 Ronald Johnson, WR USC
R6 Colin Jones, DB TCU
R7 Bruce Miller, DE/OLB Central Florida
R7 Michael Person, OL Montana St.
R7 Chris Holcomb, DB Florida A&M

Aldon Smith was seen as a reach for most with the seventh pick, especially since there had only been one quarterback taken in this draft. However, I did not see him falling past the Texans at the 11th pick so I think this was a solid move. Most 49ers fans would have liked to see a cornerback at this spot, but an elite pass rusher is much more valuable. Smith played defensive end at Missouri, but he has the quickness to be a productive OLB in the 49ers’ 3-4 scheme. He is also probably the toughest player in this draft, considering he broke his fibula in the 2010 season and only missed three weeks. He played with the injury for most of the season and still managed to record 5.5 sacks on a very unimpressive defense. He is a disruptive pass rusher who will immediately help out a 49er’s pass defense that was just awful last season.

The 49ers then traded up to get Colin Kaepernick in the second round. A lot of people compared Kaepernick to Cam Newton favorably, but Kaepernick is not nearly as polished a passer as Newton, and Newton is not all that polished of a passer either. Kaepernick has an unbelievable amount of potential and Jim Harbaugh will be able to help him progress into an NFL quarterback faster than most other coaches, but this guy could still take around two years to even be ready to start, let alone start producing at a high level for the 49ers. I like his value more as a third round player, but the need at quarterback pushed him far up the draft board. The Redskins would have taken him before the 49ers if they had not traded up to get him so that also forced their hand. He could run a wildcat/pistol offense in certain situations for the 49ers in his rookie year, but I don’t see him contributing in any other fashion in 2011.

Culliver is a cornerback in the mold of Nate Clements, which is probably not what 49ers fans want to hear. However, Clements is a good player, the 49ers just gave him a ridiculously huge contract that has made him unpopular with fans. If Culliver turns out to be even close to as good as Clements is, he will be well worth a third round pick. Hunter is another value pick in the forth round. He is a great compliment to Frank Gore and can take some of the burden off of him on third downs. The 49ers have not been pleased with Chilo Rachal’s play and while Kilgore will not replace him in 2011, he will be a solid backup and could end up taking Rachal’s spot in a year or two. Ronald Johnson is another speed receiver to help out whoever is playing quarterback for them. He can also help take some of the burden off of Ted Ginn in the return game, or allow the 49ers to part ways with him. Colin Jones will more than likely be a rotational safety for the 49ers, who need help all throughout their defensive backfield. Miller will be a situational pass rushing OLB for them and contribute on special teams. Person and Holcomb will fight for backup roles.

As I have said before, this draft grade depends on the success of their first two picks. If Smith and Kaepernick both become at least above average starters, this draft will be seen as a success. The two of them both have incredible upside, but neither should be judged by their play in 2011. This is overall a decent draft, but I do not see anyone they drafted helping them get over the hump and making the playoffs next season.


Cardinals: B
R1 Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
R2 Ryan Williams, RB Virginia Tech
R3 Robert Housler, TE Florida Atlantic
R4 Sam Acho, OLB Texas
R5 Anthony Sherman, FB Connecticut
R6 Quan Sturdivant, LB UNC
R6 David Carter, DT/DE UCLA
R7 Demarco Sampson, WR San Diego St.

The Cardinals turned their pick in faster than anyone else in the NFL draft when Peterson fell to them. That is because Peterson is an astonishing athlete who will immediately be the best cornerback on their roster, despite having Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Peterson has everything that you look for in a cover corner, which is one of the most highly valued positions in the NFL. He has 4.3 speed, so he will be able to run with any receiver in the league. He has the size (6’0, 220lbs) to shadow receivers in coverage as well as bump receivers off of their routes to disrupt the timing with their quarterbacks. What are even more impressive than his natural abilities are his instincts and his ball skills. He has the same natural instincts that have made Darrelle Revis so successful in that he seems to be able to know exactly where the receiver is going to go at all times. He also has great ball skills and picks off a lot of passes. On top of all of this, he is an explosive kickoff and punt returner. Clearly I am a big fan of this pick and this player.

Ryan Williams should immediately compete with both Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower for carries. He does not possess great speed, but he is an elusive runner who has solid hands and should at least fill the role of a third down back that the Cardinals were lacking last season. Housler will hopefully develop into a threat in the passing game and will help take some of the pressure on Larry Fitzgerald. He has very impressive speed for his size, but needs to improve as a blocker to become a full time tight end. Sam Acho could be one of the biggest steals in this draft. Not only was he probably the best player on the board when they picked him and filled a huge need, he also won the 2010 William V. Campbell Trophy for excellence in the classroom and the community. He is a hard worker and the type of person that every team would love to have. Sherman seems to be a bit of a reach in the fifth round, but is another pick that shows the Cards are committed to improving their run game. One of the Cardinals’ biggest needs was at linebacker and they get another backer who fell in the draft with Sturdivant. He looks to be a special teams player and could end up having a significant role on their defense due to a lack of depth at middle linebacker. Carter will be a rotational DE/DT if he makes the final cut. Sampson adds some depth at receiver and could develop into a decent slot receiver.

I feel very similarly about the Cardinals’ draft as I did about the Eagle’s draft. The biggest difference is that the Cards landed Peterson, who will be a big playmaker for them. Besides Peterson and Acho, most of their picks seemed to be questionable moves, especially since they did not address their quarterback situation or their porous offensive line with any of their picks. The latter is much more of a problem because it might be hard to convince a free agent quarterback to join their team since they are clearly in the rebuilding process and he would have to play behind a very question offensive line. Not to mention, the fans would expect immediate success in this offense since Larry Fitzgerald is such an incredible playmaker. However, Fitzgerald cannot solve all of their offensive woes, which the Cardinals found out the hard way last season.


Rams: B
R1 Robert Quinn, DE UNC
R2 Lance Kendricks, TE Wisconsin
R3 Austin Pettis, WR Boise St.
R4 Greg Salas, WR Hawaii
R5 Jermale Hines, DB Ohio St.
R7 Mikail Baker, DB Baylor
R7 Jabara Williams, OLB Stephen F. Austin
R7 Jonathan Nelson, SS Oklahoma

Landing Robert Quinn with the 14th pick is a great consolation prize for missing out on the top two receivers in the draft. Quinn will immediately be the best pass rusher on that team and will be the only player on their D-line that offensive coordinators will have to scheme around. He needs to get better against the run, but he is an extremely explosive pass rusher who could make the Rams’ defense relevant for the first time in years.

Since they missed out on the top two receivers in the draft, they focused their next three picks on drafting playmakers for Sam Bradford. Kendricks is an all around athletic tight end who will be tough for safeties and linebackers to match up with in the passing game. He gives Bradford a reliable receiver over the middle of the field and in the end zone. Pettis is a tall possession receiver with solid hands, but does not have enough speed to be more than a third or forth receiver. Salas is the perfect slot receiver: he has the strength and quickness to get open quickly as well as very reliable hands. He will be an immediate asset for Bradford, who does not have many weapons in his offense.

Hines is a big physical strong safety prospect who will have an immediate impact on run downs and on special teams. It might take him awhile to earn a starting spot since he is not great in coverage and is a little slower than you would like your safety to be. Baker, Williams, and Nelson will add depth to their defense and contribute on special teams.

Quinn was an incredible find in the middle of round one and spent the rest of their draft trying to help out Bradford as best they could. However, I think they reached for Kendricks and Pettis while they could have benefited from drafting a receiver like Greg Little in the second round and might have still been able to get Kenricks in the third. Salas might turn out to be a better pro than both Kendricks and Pettis, but only time will tell. I also would have liked to see them find a complementary back to take some of the load off of Steven Jackson. If they could land a back like Darren Sproles in free agency, they could really take this offense to the next level. Overall, this is an above average draft that makes them by far the most dangerous team in the NFC West.


Seahawks: F
R1 James Carpenter, OL Alabama
R3 John Moffitt, OG Wisconsin
R4 K.J. Wright, LB Mississippi St.
R4 Kris Durham, WR Georgia
R5 Richard Sherman, CB Stanford
R5 Mark Legree, FS Appalachian St.
R6 Byron Maxwell, DB Clemson
R7 Lazarius Levingston, DL LSU
R7 Malcolm Smith, OLB USC

This was an all around terrible draft. The Seahawks were already at a huge disadvantage considering they were picking towards the end of each round after a 7-9 season that somehow got them deep into the playoffs. For a team with so many needs that also lacked many high value picks (they gave away a second rounder in this year’s draft to get Charlie Whithurst), they could not afford to reach for players or focus in on one position. However, they did exactly that.

Their first pick was a huge reach for Carpenter, who looked more like a low second rounder. Not to mention there were better players who could have filled their need at right tackle (Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod), which is also a more valuable position. They did not pick again until the third round and AGAIN reached for a guard who looks more like a mid to late round prospect. Unless both of these players start immediately at each guard spot and are highly productive, the fans in Seattle will be calling for Pete Carroll’s head. It would been fine to take two non-flashy players with their first two picks, but to reach for such players who might not even have an immediate impact on your team is inexcusable.

In the later rounds, the Seahawks continued to reach for prospects who do not fill their more glaring needs. Linebacker is probably one of the only positions of strength for this team and yet they reached for a linebacker who will probably only make the roster on special teams. Wright’s main knock on him is that he does not have good “instincts,” which is something you cannot coach so it is unlikely he ends up as a starter. Durham was a HUGE reach and there were considerably better prospects on the board at the receiver position. The Seahawks do not have much speed on their offense and Edmond Gates would have added a player with game breaking speed to their roster. Gates was still on the board and is an all around better prospect than Durham. Greg Salas, who wound up on their rivals in St. Louis, is a much more polished and productive receiver and was also still on the board when they took Durham.

The Seahawks’ pass defense was terrible last season and Sherman is the first player that I think had decent value for where they drafted him. At 6’3, Sherman is a big rangy cornerback who might take a year to get used to the pro game, but has the potential to turn into a solid cover corner. Legree again helps out their defensive backfield and should immediately be a rotational safety for their defense. Maxwell is a project at the safety position. He has good speed and size, but will have to make the roster through special teams while he progresses. The fact that Levingston is the first D-lineman that the Seahawks took in this draft is completely baffling. Their defensive line was atrocious last year and their only productive player, Brandon Mebane, is a free agent and will be difficult to resign. Levingston will most likely not make the team and the Seahawks will have a barren D-line for the second year in a row. Malcolm Smith, brother of the Giants’ Steve Smith, is an undersized linebacker who is at best a quality special teams player.

If you couldn’t tell, there is basically nothing that I liked about the Seahawks draft and that is why they received the only F in this draft. As a Trojans fan, I will always love Pete Carroll and will root for him no matter what. I thought he did an amazing job in last year’s draft and coached a terrible team into the Divisional round of the playoffs. However, this team is going to take an enormous step back because this draft shows that Carroll is not ready for the responsibilities of an NFL head coach and running a draft. I hope that Carroll knows something about these players that other scouts missed, but the fact that basically all of the players he picked could have been gotten in later rounds, means that this was simply an awful draft. The Seahawks will have a lot of trouble resigning Matt Hasselbeck and Brandon Mebane because this team looks to be taking a step in the wrong direction. For the same reasons, not many free agents from other teams will be considering a move to Seattle. 

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