Monday, May 9, 2011

NFC South Draft Grades


Buccaneers: B
R1 Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
R2 Da’Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
R3 Mason Foster, LB Washington
R4 Luke Stocker, TE Tennessee
R5 Ahmad Black, SS Florida
R6 Allen Bradford, RB USC
R7 Anthony Gaitor, CB Florida International
R7 Daniel Hardy, TE Idaho

Clayborn and Bowers are both legitimate top 15 talent and defensive end was their biggest need coming into the draft. They both have some medical concerns, especially Bowers. If Bowers can recover from his knee injury and prove that this will not be a problem throughout his career, he could end up being the disruptive force on the Bucs defense that helps them get back into the playoffs. Both Clayborn and Bowers are big defensive ends who are effective against the run and pass. They will probably both start right away for this defense that is desperate for pass rushers.

The Bucs have been looking for upgrades at their outside linebacker spots since they let Derrick Brooks go. Foster might not start immediately, but he has the skills to be effective in their Tampa-2 defense and will at least be a factor on special teams. He could turn into a very productive starter in a year or so. Stocker is one of the most complete tight ends in this draft and he was a great pick up in the forth round. He has the size you look for (6’5, 258) in a starting tight end, which gives him the power to be an effective blocker at the next level. He has sneaky quickness and great hands. The Bucs will be running a lot of two tight end sets with Stocker and Kellen Winslow. This will be extremely difficult to defend with the threat of two dangerous tight ends in the passing game as well as their ability to block in the run game.

Black reminds me a lot of Jim Leonard on the Jets. He is extremely undersized (5’10, 180 lbs), but he has the instincts and heart to get the job done. I think he will end up starting sooner rather than later for the Bucs at safety, who really need to add youth to their defensive backfield. Bradford is an enormous running back to pair with LeGarrette Blount. With two talented running backs over 240 lbs, the Bucs’ run game should absolutely punish defenders and really tire teams out. Gaitor and Hardy add depth to their positions and could help out on special teams.

Besides from their seventh round picks, the rest of these rookies should all have significant roles on a Bucs’ team that won 10 games last season and barely missed the playoffs for the second time in three years. This draft class will mostly be judged on whether or not Bowers can stay on the field because if he can, I have no doubt he will be an extremely productive player. Clayborn will be a solid player, but despite being the second round pick, Bowers is the guy who could really be a difference maker on this team. 


Falcons: C-
R1 Julio Jones, WR Alabama
R3 Akeem Dent, LB Georgia
R5 Jacquizz Rodgers, RB Oregon St.
R6 Matt Bosher, K Miami
R7 Andrew Jackson, OL Fresno St.
R7 Cliff Matthews, DE South Carolina

For the same reason I gave the Browns an A, I give the Falcons a C-. They simply gave up WAY too much to get Julio Jones. I think Jones could be an incredible playmaker, but the key word is COULD. Brandon Marshall, despite having off field issues, is still one of the best receivers in the NFL. Jones should only hope he is even in the same realm as Marshall as a pro. Yet the Dolphins gave up two SECOND round picks to get him. To get Jones, the Falcons gave up two first rounders, a second rounder, and two forth rounders. This is for a player who has never even played in the NFL. On top of that, they just signed Roddy White to a $50 million contract and will have to give Jones something in the $40 million range. That is a ton of money to throw at two receivers. Matt Ryan will surely be looking for a pay raise in a year or so, which could cause some serious cap issues in the future.

Dent seemed to be a reach for a local product in the third round (Dent went to college at Georgia). He looks to be a backup and special teams player for his career and does not have much upside. Rodgers is an extremely dangerous weapon to add to Ryan’s arsenal. People worry about his size (5’6, 196 lbs), but he is very tough and should be the perfect third down back to compliment Michael Turner. Drafting a kicker, as I have said before, almost never works out well for the team that drafts him. This is a completely idiotic move for a team that could use a lot of help on defense and traded away a ridiculous amount of picks to draft an offensive player. Bosher would have to become a Pro Bowl kicker in order for this to be worth this pick. Jackson should be a backup lineman for the Falcons and Matthews is at best a backup defensive end.

Thomas Dimitroff has had great success in judging talent in the draft and free agency, but I don’t see how Jones could possibly be worth that many picks. In general, I am not a big fan of most of their picks in this draft, aside from Rodgers. The worst part of this draft is they failed to address their ineffective and aging defensive line. They could use help at defensive tackle and they have NO ONE besides the injury prone 33 year old John Abraham at defensive end. To not address this need until the seventh round is almost inexcusable considering how many talented defensive lineman there were in this draft. They must find someone in free agency to help their defensive line if they actually want to help Matt Ryan win his first playoff game.


Panthers: D-
R1 Cam Newton, QB Auburn
R3 Terrell McClain, DT South Florida
R3 Sione Fua, DT Stanford
R4 Brandon Hogan, CB West Virginia
R5 Kealoha Pilares, WR Hawaii
R6 Lawrence Wilson, LB Connecticut
R6 Zachary Williams, OL Washington St.
R7 Lee Ziemba, OL Auburn

There was a reason that I had Marcell Dareus slated as the top overall pick in all of my drafts. I simply did not think the Panthers organization was dumb enough to use the first overall pick on the riskiest player drafted in the entire first round. Sure Newton has the most potential of any player in this draft, but players with tons of potential have ruined franchises for years and cost numerous coaches their jobs. Newton was an erratic passer in college and that was while running the simplest offense in college football. At best, Newton will be ready to start in 2012 and it is absurd that a team would pay a player $10+ million a year to sit on the bench for most of the season. The Panthers have a pathetic receiving corps that will not help Newton out at all. Steve Smith wants out of Carolina because I am sure he does not want to watch another quarterback develop while he draws closer to retirement. He wants a shot at the playoffs again, and that will not happen anytime soon with the Panthers. Without Smith, the Panthers have no one at receiver and this offense looks to be even more dismal than last year’s atrocious season.

Despite passing on Dareus with the first pick, they clearly identified defensive tackle as a position they had to upgrade. McClain and Fua are both strong run stuffers, but do not have great pass rush skills. However, they will instantly be the best defensive tackles on the Panthers’ roster. Hogan is an extremely athletic cornerback, who has some serious character concerns. If he can stay out of trouble, he could turn out to be a solid starting corner and a great deal in the forth round. Pilares should turn into a decent slot receiver when he heals from a torn PCL. Wilson is a decent project at linebacker and could start day one for the Panthers if they lose Thomas Davis to free agency or another injury. Williams and Ziemba have good potential for late round picks and should both make the team as backups.

I personally really hate this draft. The only reason the Panthers did not get an F is because I simply cannot rule out the possibility that Newton will develop into a winning quarterback. I don’t see it happening, but there is still a chance that he could be a dynamic player for a Panthers team that has none. I’m glad they went after defensive tackles after their first pick, but I don’t really like that they picked two tackles who are very similar and neither have adequate pass rushing skills. The NFL has become a passing league and if you can’t rush the passer, then you aren’t going to win very many games. With none of these players seeming as if they will have much of an impact in 2011, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the Panthers do not end up with a draft pick in the top 3 in next year’s draft. If they have the first overall pick in 2012, they could be having a very interesting decision with Andrew Luck at the top of their board.


Saints: A
R1 Cameron Jordan, DE California
R1 Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
R3 Martez Wilson, LB Illinois
R3 Johnny Patrick, DB Louisville
R7 Greg Romeus, DE Pittsburgh
R7 Nate Bussey, LB Illinois

This is really the rich getting richer. The Saints are one of the deepest teams in the NFL and I am still in shock that they lost that playoff game to the Seahawks. Cameron Jordan could have been a top 10 pick, but he falls to a place where he will fit in the best. The Saints love 280+ lbs defensive ends who can rush the passer, which is exactly what Jordan brings to the table. Jordan is extremely smart and should start right away in Gregg Williams’ complicated defense. Ingram will step in day one as their starting running back, allowing them to cut ties with the over priced Reggie Bush and use Pierre Thomas more as a third down back. Ingram has immense potential and brings a physical presence to the Saints offense that has solely relied on its passing game to win games. The Saints should have the most dangerous offense in the NFL again with the addition of Ingram.

Wilson is another day one starter. He is a big physical linebacker who could turn into a dangerous blitzer for the Saints’ aggressive scheme. Wilson had a high second round grade on him, so landing him in the third round was a great move by the Saints. Patrick adds some more depth to their defensive backfield that is already chock-full of talent, but faced numerous injuries last season. Romeus has immense potential, especially for a seventh rounder, and would have been taken a lot higher if not for injury concerns. If he can stay healthy, he should at least be a situational pass rusher for Gregg Williams to utilize. Bussey will only make this team through special teams play.

The Saints got great value at all of their picks and even managed to fill some of their biggest needs. Defensive end was their biggest need and they got one of the best ends in the draft with the 24th pick. They then landed the best running back in draft and a Heisman Trophy winner. Those two alone are huge upgrades for an already very talented team. The rest of their picks at least add depth to the defense at all levels. This is a great draft and I cannot wait to see the Saints and Packers meet in the playoffs this year, probably in the NFC Championship game. 

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