LAST MOCK: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
I’m sticking with Dareus as the top pick, since he is the best value with the first pick. The Panthers will do everything they can to make people think they are going to take a quarterback in order to try to trade out of this pick, since they don’t have a second round pick and have numerous needs on both sides of the ball.
***4/24/11: Another reason that Newton/Gabbert does not make sense at this pick is that the Panthers have FOUR quarterbacks on their roster under the age of 26, two of whom were rookies last year (Jimmy Clausen and sixth round draft pick Tony Pike).
2. BRONCOS: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
LAST MOCK: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
Fairley has bust written all over him, but he is still the most talented defensive lineman left of the board, which is the Broncos biggest need by far. If the Panthers don’t take a quarterback, it is more than likely that the Broncos will trade out of this pick with a team that wants to grab a quarterback before the Bills can get to him. Patrick Peterson is also a big possibility here, and would be a much safer pick.
3. BILLS: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
LAST MOCK: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
Cam Newton has a ton of potential and it’s been a long time since the Bills have drafted someone that will get their fan base excited. This could be the biggest mistake of the draft, or it could turn around a franchise that has needed a franchise quarterback since the mid-90s.
4. BENGALS: WR AJ Green, Georgia
LAST MOCK: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Drafting the top wide receiver in the draft could entice Carson Palmer to come back to Cincinnati. If not, they still end up with one of the best players in the draft and will take a quarterback in the second round or trade up to get a player like Ryan Mallet.
5. CARDINALS: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M
LAST MOCK: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M
Larry Fitzgerald came out to say that he does not believe the Cards will draft a quarterback in the first round, and I believe him. They have a much bigger need at OLB and Miller is by far the best prospect to fill that need in their 3-4 defense. I believe they will either go after Marc Bulger or Kevin Kolb once free agency starts.
6. BROWNS: WR Julio Jones, Alabama
LAST MOCK: WR AJ Green, Georgia
The Browns have needed a playmaker at WR for years and have not even found anyone to replace Braylon Edwards’ mediocre production during his short career in Cleveland. Jones is the second best receiver in this draft, but he is still a top 10 talent. He might fit the Browns offense better than Green anyway, since he has superior run blocking skills and we all saw what Peyton Hillis can do with no support in that offense. Don’t be surprised if the Browns trade out of this spot, much like they did two years ago, when they traded down twice.
7. 49ers: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
LAST MOCK: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
This guy might be the best player in the draft, but the NFL’s baffling bias against DBs has him falling to the seventh pick. The 49ers, much like when they got Michael Crabtree, will be more than happy to snag him. There’s a good chance that if Peterson is still available at pick six, Dallas will trade with the Browns to snag him before he gets to the 49ers. If Gabbert is still here, I think there will be a tough discussion going on in San Francisco.
8. TITANS: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
LAST MOCK: DE Robert Quinn, UNC
The Titans will be ecstatic if Gabbert is still here for them at the eighth pick. Gabbert would be a perfect fit for the Titans offense. He could start right away considering the Titans have the best running back in football and a solid defense to take off some of the pressure on this young quarterback.
9. COWBOYS: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
LAST MOCK: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Cowboys were terrible against the pass last year and they are lucky to get this type of talent at cornerback. If Rob Ryan is anything like his brother, he will be clamoring for help at the cornerback position in order to effectively run his defense. Offensive line is as a huge need, but unless the Cowboys trade down, I don’t see them going in that direction with their first pick.
10. REDSKINS: DE Robert Quinn, UNC
LAST MOCK: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson
If Newton, Gabbert, and both the top two receivers are off the board, I think the Redskins will be trying to trade out of this pick, but there might not be anyone willing to trade with them. If they have to stick with this pick, they will hope Quinn can make the jump to OLB in their 3-4 scheme. Don’t be shocked if they trade up to get Gabbert if he falls past Arizona.
11. TEXANS: DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
LAST MOCK: DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
The Texans need at least one starter at OLB, two if they move Brian Cushing inside alongside DeMeco Ryans. Smith is a high energy athlete with a ton of potential who will fit right into Wade Phillips’ new 3-4 scheme. Smith only missed three games last season after breaking his fibula, which usually takes a year to heal properly. That type of toughness will make him highly coveted in this draft.
12. VIKINGS: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson
LAST MOCK: QB Christian Ponder, FSU
Bowers could fall a lot further than this, but I think he has too much talent to fall past the Vikings, who need a new DE since it looks like Ray Edwards is leaving in free agency. If Bowers medical concerns check out, the combination of Jared Allen and Bowers could be the most feared pass rushers in the league. I believe the Vikings will trade for Donovan McNabb once the new collective bargaining agreement is finalized. I am still very high on Christian Ponder, but he is not getting the press he deserves. Despite this, I still don’t think he will make it out of the first round.
13. LIONS: OT Tyron Smith, USC
LAST MOCK: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
Smith has taken over as the consensus top tackle in this draft. It worries me that he has played on the right side his entire college career despite being so athletic, but his incredible movement skills for someone his size will cause him to be drafted in the top 15. Either way, the Lions need to take the top tackle available because they need to find someone who can protect Matthew Stafford’s blindside if they want him to play more than 8 games a season.
14. RAMS: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LAST MOCK: WR Julio Jones, Alabama
The Rams aren’t as lucky in this draft and Jones is not available for them. Luckily, Ryan Kerrigan is a great fit for their defense, which needs help in the pass rush. They will take the best receiver available in the second round to help out Sam Bradford.
15. DOLPHINS: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
LAST MOCK: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will not be back in Miami next year, so running back will be a huge need. Ingram will be a big upgrade over both of them and could man the position for the Dolphins for years. He runs slow, but is quick and powerful, which is much more important for an NFL running back than straight-line speed anyway. Ingram is falling in the draft for no fault of his own. Whoever drafts him will get a highly productive player. However, this pick looks more and more like it could be Ryan Mallett.
16. JAGUARS: DE/DT Cameron Jordan
LAST MOCK: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
The Jaguars finally take a hardworking, extremely intelligent player at the DE position instead of taking the risk-reward type projects that have failed them over the years. Cameron’s father played tight end for the Vikings for 12 years and was selected to 6 consecutive Pro Bowls, so he has been around football his entire life. Christian Ponder could be in play here.
17. PATRIOTS: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
LAST MOCK: DE/DT Cameron Jordan
I think the Pats will break their trend of trading down and actually trade up to get a top DE or rush OLB, especially if they think there will be a rookie salary cap. However, if they keep this pick, they will draft Castonzo to replace Matt Light at left tackle. It was the Pats’ inability to protect Brady that caused them to fall to the Jets in the playoffs and offensive line is a huge need for them in this draft. JJ Watt will also get a look at this spot, but pass protect is more important.
18. CHARGERS: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin
LAST MOCK: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin
Watt is an extremely productive and high motor player who can line up all over the Charger’s defensive line that has been lacking a playmaker the last couple of years. Watt could be a top 10 pick, but I think he falls a bit because teams will be looking for pure pass rushers.
19. GIANTS: OL Mike Pouncey, Florida
LAST MOCK: OT Tyron Smith, USC
Eli Manning threw WAY too many interceptions last year. While a lot of that had to do with the Giants’ receivers being decimated by injuries, the Giants’ aging offensive line is equally as responsible. Pouncey can immediately step in and help out the interior of the Giants’ offensive line, much like his twin brother did last year for the Steelers.
20. BUCCANEERS: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
LAST MOCK: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
The Bucs need help at DE after drafting two DTs with their first two picks last year. An edge rusher is exactly what the youngest team in the NFL needs to take the next step to make the playoffs. Clayborn had 11.5 sacks in his junior year, but only 3.5 in his senior year. The Bucs will hope he was not a one-year wonder.
21. CHIEFS: NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
LAST MOCK: NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Chiefs have a solid young defense, but a top notch, space eating nose tackle will take this defense to the next level. There are not many 330+ pound defensive linemen in this draft so I could see someone trading up to get him before the Chiefs get their hands on him.
22. COLTS: OT Nate Soldier, Colorado
LAST MOCK: OT Nate Soldier, Colorado
Peyton Manning looked uncomfortable all of last season and that was mainly because he constantly had to be concerned that someone was sprinting full speed towards him from his blindside. The Colts have to find a left tackle in this draft and Soldier, once thought of as the top tackle prospect in this draft, is the most qualified offensive tackle left to man that position.
23. EAGLES: OL Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
LAST MOCK: DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State
Remember how I said in my last mock that Andy Reid only drafts defensive linemen or gigantic offensive linemen? Well Carimi is 6’7 315 pounds. The Eagles have to protect Michael Vick better if they want him to survive a full season, especially since they will trade Kolb before the season starts and will not have a backup that can win a lot of games for them. Carimi can immediately step in for the disappointing Winston Justice, who was benched towards the end of their playoff game.
24. SAINTS: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
LAST MOCK: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Saints don’t have too many glaring needs, but they could use someone at DT to pair next to Sedrick Ellis. Liuget is one of the best 4-3 DTs in the draft, so they are lucky to get him all the way down here.
25. SEAHAWKS: QB Christian Ponder, FSU
LAST MOCK: OL Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
Ponder is a perfect fit for Pete Carroll’s West Coast offense and Matt Hasselbeck can play for another year or two while Ponder develops. Ponder has the “it” factor that Carroll is looking for in his next quarterback and Charlie Whitehurst failed miserably in the few games he played in last year.
26. RAVENS: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
LAST MOCK: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
The Ravens essentially HAVE to find a starter at CB in this draft. Smith is big and physical and is an immediate upgrade over all of the Ravens’ CBs from last year, despite all of his character concerns. If Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can’t get this guy to play at the top of his game, no one will.
27. FALCONS: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
LAST MOCK: Rahim Moore, UCLA
Tight end is a big need for the Falcons since Tony Gonzalez probably only has one year left in him. Rudolph had a great pro-day and has pushed himself into first round consideration, despite missing a lot of time last season due to injury.
28. PATRIOTS: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
LAST MOCK: OL Mike Pouncey, Florida
The Patriots need to improve their pass rush, and Ayers is one of the best rush OLBs in this draft. He will start immediately for the Patriots, who really don’t have many options at the position.
29. BEARS: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.
LAST MOCK: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.
Jay Cutler took an unbelievable beating last year and that is what ended up costing them a trip to the Super Bowl. Sherrod should be able to start day one of the other side of Chris Williams.
30. JETS: DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
LAST MOCK: DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Jets’ front seven needs upgrades at all positions except for middle linebacker. Wilkerson is a bit of a project, but the Jets would be lucky to get him here because of his immense potential. He will either replace or start next to Shaun Ellis, who is a free agent.
31. STEELERS: CB Aaron Williams, Texas
LAST MOCK: CB Aaron Williams, Texas
As shown during the Super Bowl, the Steelers need depth at cornerback. Aaron Rodgers threw all over them with ease. If it weren’t for a few critical drops by the Packers’ receivers, the Steelers would have been blown out in that game. If the Steelers plan on beating any quarterbacks besides Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in the playoffs, they need to improve the back end of their defense.
32. PACKERS: DE/DT Cameron Heyward, Ohio St.
LAST MOCK: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Packers need a replacement for Cullen Jenkins, since it does not look like they will bring him back now that he is a free agent. Heyward is a great talent, but has some character and work ethic concerns that will cause him to fall in this range.
***NOTES: I see at least four quarterbacks going in the first round because of the need for quarterbacks and the inability for teams to fill that need with free agency. There are a lot of teams at the end of round one that would be willing to trade down in order for a team at the top of round two to grab the quarterback they want (Patriots, Jets, Saints, Packers, among others). There will probably be around 8 quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds, so the end of round one and the beginning of round two will see a lot of quarterbacks flying off the draft board.
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