2011 Quarterback Draft Class

My top 5 QBs:

1. Christian Ponder
2. Blaine Gabbert
3. Cam Newton
4. Ryan Mallett
5. Jake Locker

Let’s look at this list in detail, considering I’m sure everyone reading this will be shocked that Christian Ponder is listed as my number one quarterback in this draft, but I am ready to defend this point.

CHRISTIAN PONDER: Let me start this off by saying that I am in no way a Florida State fan. In fact, I usually root against them. However, I am extremely surprised that I am the only one that is this high on Ponder. From everything that I have heard and seen on this guy, the only knocks on him are his arm strength and the fact that he missed a decent amount of time during his college career due to injuries. Since I have not heard anything about his injuries in his draft analysis, I am forced to assume that he checks out medically. That leaves his arm strength, which I have studied through his tape. While he might not have as strong of as arm as the other quarterbacks in the top five of this draft, it is important to remember that the quarterbacks in recent history that have had the most impressive arm strength, Kyle Boller and Jamarcus Russell, have been complete failures for their teams. It is easy for teams to fall in love with a player’s arm strength and potential, but that alone is not what makes for a great quarterback. Ponder’s arm strength may limit his potential, but it is still well above average and should not be held against him, especially since good coaching could help improve his arm strength. One of the main knocks on Tom Brady coming out of college was weak arm strength, and we all know how that turned out.

Ponder’s accuracy on all types of throws really sets him apart from the rest of the quarterbacks in this group. His game really reminds me of Kevin Kolb coming out of college, except that Ponder is more pro-ready and much smarter. Ponder and Kolb are similar size, 6’3 220-230 lbs. They are both sneaky athletes and have good pocket awareness. While Kolb’s production was more impressive coming out of college, he also was in a much easier conference. While Kolb came out of more of a spread type offense, Ponder played in a pro-style offense that has him much more prepared for a transition to the NFL than Kolb was coming out of college. On top of that, Ponder won numerous student-athlete awards during his time at FSU. While grades are not the most important factor when grading a quarterback, it certainly doesn’t hurt since NFL quarterbacks have to be able to process an incredible amount of information at the line of scrimmage. Finally, Ponder has absolutely no character concerns. He has never been in trouble with the law and is fully dedicated to football.

When it comes down to it, there are numerous teams that need a quarterback right now and Ponder is ready to step into the starting line up right now and command a huddle. I could see him falling into the second round, but in a few years from now, I have no doubt that this guy will be one of the most productive quarterbacks from this class.

BLAINE GABBERT: I have a lot of questions about this guy, but since this is a very weak quarterback class, I have him ranked as my number two. Gabbert played exclusively in the spread offense and it will take some time for him to be a productive player in the NFL. His statistical accuracy in college is significantly exaggerated since he almost never threw the ball more than 10 yards down field in the offense he ran. Despite having great arm strength, his deep ball accuracy is a huge concern and could cause him to fall out of the top 5 or even the top 10 in this draft. However, this guy loves football and will give whatever team drafts him everything that he has got. I cannot see him falling out of the top 10 in this draft and I would be surprised if he makes it past the Cardinals at fifth overall. Gabbert has a ton of potential but will need time and good coaching in order to become a top notch quarterback in this league.

CAM NEWTON: Newton has more potential than any incoming quarterback since Jamarcus Russell, and has just as much downside. Newton is a freakish athlete. I cannot remember ever seeing someone his size, 6’6 250 lbs, move as quickly as him. On top of that, he is a more polished passes than Vince Young and Tim Tebow were coming out of college. However, Newton is far too erratic of a passer and makes too many mistakes, especially since the defenses he faced were all keying in on the run game. Newton looked terrible in the National Championship game. He was extremely inconsistent, he missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on fourth and goal from the three yard line, and he had a critical fumble in the end of the fourth quarter that almost cost them the game. While he should not be judged on that game alone, it is not a good thing that he did not do much to help his team win in the most important game of the season. Newton also has a ton of character concerns surrounding him and his father, which are extremely concerning. To me, Newton seems to be more concerned with being an “icon” and a star player than actually putting in the work to reach that level of achievement.

I believe that if he is taken in the top ten of this draft, which he most likely will, that he will be a complete bust because he will not put in the work necessary to be a starting NFL quarterback and will have the option to walk away with tens of millions of dollars for doing nothing. However, if he falls out of the top ten, a team will be more likely be able to sit him for a year or more to get him comfortable in their offense. Also, his fall in the draft could light a fire under him in order to prove to the teams that passed on him that they made a mistake.

RYAN MALLETT: If we were playing flag football, Mallett would be the first pick overall. No one in this draft can sling the ball like Mallett. He has better arm strength and is a more polished passer than anyone in this draft class. However, he is another quarterback with a lot of character concerns, mostly having to do with drugs and alcohol. On top of his characters concerns, there are a lot of inconsistencies in his game. He makes too many errors in critical points in the game, often throwing stupid interceptions that would be completely inexcusable for a NFL quarterback. The biggest problem I have seen from him is that he takes WAY too many sacks. He lacks that instinctual pocket presence that is necessary to survive the pro game and he is extremely immobile (he ran a 5.3 in the 40 yard dash). That should really concern GMs and scouts. Overall, his game reminds me a lot of Jamarcus Russell’s coming out of college without as much upside. If he stays away from drugs and alcohol and really puts his full effort into becoming an NFL quarterback, he could end up being the best quarterback in this class.

JAKE LOCKER: Once thought of as possibly being the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft, Locker’s continued lack of success as a passer at the collegiate level has many questioning his ability to even be a starter in the NFL, let alone a franchise quarterback. Much like Newton, Locker is an incredible athlete, but he does not nearly have the arm that Newton has. However, as I stated before, just being athletic will not make you a great quarterback. Locker’s touchdown to interception ratio is pretty disappointing, but it is his inaccuracy that really has GMs concerned. He has never even come close to completing over 60% of his passes in a season. Accuracy is one thing that is very hard for a coach to help a quarterback improve. It is very rare for a quarterback to be more accurate in the NFL than he was in college, especially for a four year starter such as Locker. After putting together the least challenging pro day I have seen in years for such a highly rated quarterback, I don’t see how anyone takes Locker in the first round.

If you couldn’t tell from my analysis, I am not a big fan of any of these quarterbacks and I truly believe that if Andrew Luck had entered the draft this year, none of these other quarterbacks would even be considered a top ten pick.