Final 2011 NFL Mock Draft

1. PANTHERS: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

LAST MOCK: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama

Cam Newton makes no sense at this spot. The Panthers publicly said they would draft Andrew Luck if he decided to leave Stanford. However, that didn’t happen and the Panthers are stuck with inferior quarterbacks to choose from. Now that they know they have the most difficult schedule in the NFL for the 2011 season, its more than likely they will be picking in the top 5 in the next draft and have a good shot at Luck in 2012. Ron Rivera said that they are looking for a “sound pick” who will make an impact immediately, which is the opposite of what Newton offers them. Dareus is the best player in the draft and will solidify the interior of the Panthers’ defense for years. They can let Jimmy Clausen, or one of the other young quarterbacks on their roster, take a beating next year and figure out who will be starting in 2012.

2. BRONCOS: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU

LAST MOCK: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

The Broncos have a bigger need along their defensive line, but Peterson is just too good to pass up. He might be the best player in this draft and he will be able to start immediately for the Broncos’ defense that took a big hit last season without defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. The Broncos need an eventual replacement for Champ Bailey and Peterson could end up being an even better pro than Bailey, which is saying a lot.

3. BILLS: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

LAST MOCK: QB Cam Newton, Auburn

I think there is a good chance the Bills will panic and trade up to either the first or second pick in order to draft Cam Newton, which is exactly what the Panthers and Broncos want. I don’t see the Bills taking anyone besides one of the top two quarterbacks or Patrick Peterson. They have already invested a lot of money in acquiring Shawne Merriman and Aaron Maybin is still developing, so I don’t think they will take Von Miller, who is slated in the third spot in many other mock drafts.

4. BENGALS: WR AJ Green, Georgia

LAST MOCK: WR AJ Green, Georgia

The Bengals have focused in on drafting a receiver with their top pick and I’m confident they will take either Green or Julio Jones. I could see them moving out of this spot in order to gain some ammunition to trade back into the first round to draft a quarterback, but I don’t think they will find anyone to trade with.

5. CARDINALS: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

LAST MOCK: LB Von Miller, Texas A&M

As bad as the Cardinals offense looked last year, their defense was equally as inconsistent. They desperately need a rush outside linebacker and if Von Miller is there for them, he will be their pick no matter who else in left no the board. Fitzgerald wants a veteran quarterback and drafting another young quarterback will only frustrate him further. The Cardinals will do everything they can to keep Fitzgerald happy. Robert Quinn could be in this spot if Miller isn’t available.

6. BROWNS: DE Robert Quinn, UNC

LAST MOCK: WR Julio Jones, Alabama

Mike Holmgren knows it is easier to find a receiver than a pass rusher, and both are equally gaping holes in the Browns roster. Quinn is the best pass rusher in this draft and will immediately be the best defensive lineman on the Browns’ D line that is looking for all new starters for their switch back to a 4-3 defense.

7. 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

LAST MOCK: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU

In my last mock draft, I had Gabbert falling to the 8^th pick to the Titans and even I thought this might have been a drastic fall. However, there are more reports that Gabbert’s draft stock is falling. Gabbert’s downfield accuracy is a huge concern and teams are finally taking note of it. Jim Harbaugh will take a risk on this big arm quarterback and give Alex Smith a one or two year contract to compete with Gabbert for the starting job.

8. TITANS: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

LAST MOCK: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

Fairley is another player whose draft stock is falling fast. He seems like the player with the most bust potential in the top 10, but his talent level still keeps him in that range. I don’t see him falling past the Titans unless one of the top two quarterbacks fall to them. Defensive tackle has been a need for them since they let Albert Haynesworth leave in free agency. The Titans tend to take chances on players with character concerns, so this seems like a perfect fit.

9. COWBOYS: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska

LAST MOCK: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska

I have had Prince at this spot all along and I’m sticking with it. I don’t think JJ Watt should be a top 10 pick because he is not a great pass rusher, and big run stuffers can be found much later in the draft. Offensive line is a big need, but they like Doug Free as their left tackle and they can find starters at guard and right tackle later in the draft. Prince is an amazing talent and I think he would be a top 5 pick if Peterson wasn’t in this draft.

10. REDSKINS: WR Julio Jones, Alabama

LAST MOCK: DE Robert Quinn, UNC

If Jones falls to the Redskins, I cannot see a scenario in which they pass on him. The Redskins have been looking for upgrades at receiver since they unsuccessfully brought in Antwaan Randle El in 2006 with an unwarranted giant contract. Santana Moss was the only halfway decent receiver on that team last season and he is a free agent. The Redskins need to find at least two starting caliber receivers this off season and Jones would immediately be the best receiver on that team.

11. TEXANS: DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri

LAST MOCK: DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri

The Texans need at least one starter at OLB, two if they move Brian Cushing inside alongside DeMeco Ryans. Smith is a high energy athlete with a ton of potential who will fit right into Wade Phillips’ new 3-4 scheme. Smith only missed three games last season after breaking his fibula, which usually takes a year to heal properly. That type of toughness will make him highly coveted in this draft.

12. VIKINGS: DE DE/DT Cameron Jordan, Cal

LAST MOCK: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson

Bowers’ stock is falling fast after a terrible pro day and huge concerns over his knee injury. The Vikings take the safer pick, and possibly the better player, with Cameron Jordan. Cameron’s father played tight end for the Vikings for 12 years and was selected to 6 consecutive Pro Bowls, so the fans should love this pick.

13. LIONS: OT Tyron Smith, USC

LAST MOCK: OT Tyron Smith, USC

Bowers will get a long look here if he is still available, but I still don’t see the Lions passing on a chance to protect Matthew Stafford with one of the top tackles in this draft. Smith has taken over as the consensus top tackle in this draft. It worries me that he has played on the right side his entire college career despite being so athletic, but his incredible movement skills for someone his size will cause him to be drafted in the top 15. Either way, the Lions need to take the top tackle available because they need to find someone who can protect Stafford’s blindside if they want him to play more than 8 games a season.

14. RAMS: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue

LAST MOCK: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue

The Rams would love to see Julio Jones at this spot, but I do not think there is a chance he falls this far. I could definitely see them trading up to get Jones (either with the Browns or the Cowboys), but if they stick with this pick, they will take the top defensive lineman on their board. I would bet Kerrigan is sitting atop that list.

15. DOLPHINS: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama

LAST MOCK: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama

You never know what the Dolphins are going to do on draft day, but Tony Sparano really wants to keep his job. After the Dolphins failed replace him with Jim Harbaugh, Sparano and the organization are in a bit of an awkward position. However, Sparano will be pushing for a player that will contribute immediately in order to make sure the Dolphins are not looking for his replacement again next season. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will not be back in Miami next year, so running back will be a huge need. Ingram will be a big upgrade over both of them and could man the position for the Dolphins for years. He runs slow, but is quick and powerful, which is much more important for an NFL running back than straight-line speed anyway. A lot of mock drafts have the Dolphins taking a quarterback or an offensive lineman. I think this is due to the Dolphins trying to convince people they are going in a different direction than Ingram so no one trades up to take him before they get to him.

16. JAGUARS: QB Christian Ponder, FSU

LAST MOCK: DE/DT Cameron Jordan, Cal

Ponder has the exact type of skills that the Jaguars covet: mobile, accurate, and great leadership skills. His game looks amazingly similar to Mark Brunell, who is probably the most beloved Jaguar player of all time. It doesn’t hurt that he played at Florida State and could help bring back the fans who have been absent for years.

17. PATRIOTS: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College

LAST MOCK: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College

I think the Pats will break their trend of trading down and actually trade up to get a top DE or rush OLB, especially if they think there will be a rookie salary cap. However, if they keep this pick, they will draft Castonzo to replace Matt Light at left tackle. It was the Pats’ inability to protect Brady that caused them to fall to the Jets in the playoffs and offensive line is a huge need for them in this draft. JJ Watt will also get a look at this spot, but pass protection is more important.

18. CHARGERS: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin

LAST MOCK: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin

Watt is an extremely productive and high motor player who can line up all over the Charger’s defensive line that has been lacking a playmaker the last couple of years. Watt could be a top 10 pick, but I think he falls a bit because teams will be looking for pure pass rushers.

19. GIANTS: OL Mike Pouncey, Florida

LAST MOCK: OL Mike Pouncey, Florida

Eli Manning threw WAY too many interceptions last year. While a lot of that had to do with the Giants’ receivers being decimated by injuries, the Giants’ aging offensive line is equally as responsible. Pouncey can immediately step in and help out the interior of the Giants’ offensive line, much like his twin brother did last year for the Steelers.

20. BUCCANEERS: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson

LAST MOCK: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa

This is as far as I think Bowers will fall, unless some more bad news about his knee is released. The Bucs need desperate help at DE and Bowers could solve that problem for them, or be yet another bust for them at that position. Cornerback is now a huge need for them as well since they are planning on cutting Aqib Talib after yet another run in with the law.

21. CHIEFS: NT Phil Taylor, Baylor

LAST MOCK: NT Phil Taylor, Baylor

Taylor seems to be dropping in mock drafts for no apparent reason. That usually means teams are trying to downgrade a player in hope that other teams will pass on him so they can go after that prospect. There are not many 330+ pound defensive linemen in this draft so I could still see him being off the board by the time the Chiefs pick. The Chiefs have a solid young defense, but a top notch, space eating nose tackle will take this defense to the next level. Gabe Carimi will get a look here too, but I don’t think they would use a top 20 pick on a guy that is going to play right tackle.

22. COLTS: OT Nate Soldier, Colorado

LAST MOCK: OT Nate Soldier, Colorado

Peyton Manning looked uncomfortable all of last season and that was mainly because he constantly had to be concerned that someone was sprinting full speed towards him from his blindside. The Colts have to find a left tackle in this draft and Soldier, once thought of as the top tackle prospect in this draft, is the most qualified offensive tackle left to man that position.

23. EAGLES: OL Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin

LAST MOCK: OL Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin

Remember how I said that Andy Reid only drafts defensive linemen or gigantic offensive linemen? Well Carimi is 6’7 315 pounds. The Eagles have to protect Michael Vick much better if they want him to survive a full season, especially since they will trade Kolb before the season starts and will not have a backup that can win a lot of games for them. Carimi can immediately step in for the disappointing Winston Justice, who was benched towards the end of their playoff game.

24. SAINTS: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa

LAST MOCK: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois

Clayborn’s stock has fallen a bit because of medical concerns and a large decrease in production from his junior to senior year (11.5 to 3.5 sacks). However, he has great potential and has the frame (6’3 280 pounds) that the Saints look for in the defensive ends.

25. SEAHAWKS: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois

LAST MOCK: QB Christian Ponder, FSU

The Seahawks were terrible on defense last year and Pete Carroll will be looking for help all along his defensive line. Liuget could go as high as 12 to the Vikings, so the Seahawks are lucky most teams are switching to 3-4 defenses and are able to get a top notch 4-3 defensive tackle this far down in the draft. The second tier quarterbacks will get a close look, but Liuget is too good to pass up.

26. RAVENS: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado

LAST MOCK: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado

The Ravens essentially HAVE to find a starter at CB in this draft. Smith is big and physical and is an immediate upgrade over all of the Ravens’ CBs from last year, despite all of his character concerns. If Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can’t get this guy to play at the top of his game, no one will.

27. FALCONS: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame

LAST MOCK: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame

Tight end is a big need for the Falcons since Tony Gonzalez probably only has one year left in him. Rudolph had a great pro-day and has pushed himself into first round consideration, despite missing a lot of time last season due to injury.

28. PATRIOTS: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA

LAST MOCK: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA

The Patriots need to improve their pass rush, and Ayers is one of the best rush OLBs in this draft. He will start immediately for the Patriots, who really don’t have many options at the position.

29. BEARS: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.

LAST MOCK: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.

Jay Cutler took an unbelievable beating last year and that is what ended up costing them a trip to the Super Bowl. Sherrod should be able to start day one of the other side of Chris Williams.

30. JETS: DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple

LAST MOCK: DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple

The Jets’ front seven needs upgrades at all positions except for middle linebacker. Wilkerson is a bit of a project, but the Jets would be lucky to get him here because of his immense potential. He will either replace or start next to Shaun Ellis, who is a free agent.

31. STEELERS: CB Aaron Williams, Texas

LAST MOCK: CB Aaron Williams, Texas

As shown during the Super Bowl, the Steelers need depth at cornerback. Aaron Rodgers threw all over them with ease. If it weren’t for a few critical drops by the Packers’ receivers, the Steelers would have been blown out in that game. If the Steelers plan on beating any quarterbacks besides Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in the playoffs, they need to improve the back end of their defense. Williams can play cornerback and free safty, which is a big plus for the Steelers defense that needs help at both positions.

32. PACKERS: DE/OLB Brooks Reed, University of Arizona

LAST MOCK: DE/DT Cameron Heyward, Ohio St.

Reed had the fastest 10 yard split in the 40 yard dash out of any of the defensive ends at the combine, meaning he is unbelievably explosive. His stock has been rising seemly every day and I think there is a chance he could be gone before the Packers pick here. The Packers will find a replacement for Cullen Jenkins in the later rounds.

***NOTES: I think there will be around 5 trades in the first round this year, probably at least two in the first ten picks considering the Panthers, Broncos, Browns, Cowboys, and Redskins all looking to trade down. This is going to be a really interesting draft to watch. If you want to follow the draft live, I will be tweeting updates all weekend long @AustenElmore.